XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dbab---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dbab---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

This is not quite your usual pay-now-or-later problem, but similar
principles apply. The blot in O's board gives X a license to kill.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.428
Player: 59.97% (G:22.42% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 40.03% (G:13.03% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.416..+0.441) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/2 eq:+0.350 (-0.079)
Player: 58.13% (G:15.22% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 41.87% (G:10.02% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.335..+0.364) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dc-b---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.407
Player: 59.85% (G:18.79% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:12.32% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.396..+0.419) - [94.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/2 eq:+0.394 (-0.013)
Player: 59.30% (G:16.21% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 40.70% (G:9.63% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.382..+0.406) - [5.8%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/6/2023 6:03 PM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

I think the fact that he only has three points is more important than the blot. The ranking changes when you make the 2 points with the blot on the 4 and the spare on the 6.

If you're saying that if O had four home-board points then that
would induce us to play safe, then yes, I agree!

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)