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  • Re: early blitz cubes theory question

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Backgammon Finesse on Sat Dec 30 00:05:54 2023
    On 12/29/2023 3:16 PM, Backgammon Finesse wrote:
    my question is - after how many moves from the start this is OK to exit from the match?

    I don't fully understand what you're asking, but it might be
    right to pass as early as the third roll of the game.

    XGID=bB-B--C-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X X X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 147 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in XG Roller++
    Player Winning Chances: 67.30% (G:39.71% B:0.56%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.70% (G:7.19% B:0.35%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.852 (-0.148)
    Double/Take: +1.129 (+0.129)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Jan 1 10:56:52 2024
    On 12/31/2023 10:18 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I interpret the question as follows:
    A world-class backgammon player decides to give lessons
    on early blitz cubes.
    This player also decides to use openings of games to illustrate this concept. A further decision is made to show the first n moves of each opening (where "move" means ply).
    What is the optimal value of n for such teaching purposes?
    For example, 4 would obviously be way too small because we'd miss out on a lot
    of good early blitz cube decisions. And clearly 50 would be way too large.

    Ah...very good! Now that I re-read the original post in light of your interpretation, I agree that your interpretation is a good one.

    I think the answer depends partly on what one's definition of "early"
    is. If a blitz cube decision occurs too late in the game, then even if
    it's an interesting and instructive cube decision, it won't be an
    "early" blitz cube.

    But in any case, a lot of interesting blitz cube decisions will occur
    within the first 10 rolls (5 rolls by each player), so there should not
    be any need to go beyond that. And probably most people would still
    consider the 10th roll of the game to be fairly "early."

    ---
    Tim Chow

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