On 11/16/2021 12:09 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
"Play small doubles slowly"?
"When in doubt, make the five point"?
or
"Which five point do you mean?"?
This came up over the board and I did not play these small doubles
slowly. Making the five point seemed so obvious that I didn't think
about it very much. Turns out that while the rollout agrees, making the defensive five point is exactly tied after 1296 trials, with several
other plays not very far behind.
Presumably at GS making the 20 point would be the correct play since it
loses fewer gammons. At 5a5a the gammon price is slightly lower than for unlimited so making the GP is the bot choice in money play too (rollout
below). But I doubt I'd ever see that no matter how slowly I played
these aces, and part of the power of "When in doubt make the five point"
is that when it's wrong it's usually not wrong by much.
XGID=---BB-C-CAb-bB---cbd-Baa--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| X O O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 123 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.276
Player: 41.64% (G:6.30% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 58.36% (G:4.02% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.285..-0.267) - [49.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/20(2) 8/7 6/5 eq:-0.276
Player: 41.11% (G:5.21% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 58.89% (G:3.25% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.286..-0.267) - [44.8%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/20(2) 8/7(2) eq:-0.284 (-0.008)
Player: 40.88% (G:4.93% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 59.12% (G:3.13% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.293..-0.275) - [3.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:-0.286 (-0.010)
Player: 41.32% (G:5.78% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 58.68% (G:3.89% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.295..-0.277) - [1.3%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:-0.287 (-0.011)
Player: 41.28% (G:6.06% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 58.72% (G:3.85% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.297..-0.278) - [1.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 6/5 eq:-0.291 (-0.015)
Player: 41.19% (G:5.78% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 58.81% (G:4.19% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.300..-0.281) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Unlimited play
XGID=---BB-C-CAb-bB---cbd-Baa--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| X O O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O O X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 21/20(2) 8/7 6/5 eq:-0.286
Player: 41.15% (G:5.17% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 58.85% (G:3.18% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.295..-0.276) - [70.4%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.289 (-0.004)
Player: 41.70% (G:6.33% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 58.30% (G:4.09% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.299..-0.280) - [29.6%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
3. 4
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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