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  • Some kind of cube decision

    From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 26 09:04:35 2021
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Nov 26 11:29:23 2021
    On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 12:04:36 PM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    No XGID

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Tim Chow@21:1/5 to J R on Sat Nov 27 10:30:52 2021
    On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 2:29:24 PM UTC-5, J R wrote:
    No XGID

    Second attempt.

    XGID=aBBBBbB----A-----B-ccBc-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sat Nov 27 14:20:20 2021
    On Friday, November 26, 2021 at 5:04:36 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    D/T.
    If the opponent can reenter while the pipcount is close, it seems like a fairly even contest.
    So take.
    If we roll big, and the opponent dances, we lose our market so double.
    I don't think we, or our opponent, will get many gammons.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 29 21:31:36 2021
    XGID=aBBBBbB----A-----B-ccBc-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    I was surprised that XG deemed this to be a ND. I'm doubling this
    one for sure OTB because it looks scary and some will pass. But X
    still has a lot of work to do to come home, and if O hits back then
    the tables could turn immediately. Despite X's five-point board,
    X wins only about 10% gammons according to the rollout; I was guessing
    that X would win upwards of 15% gammons.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 70.18% (G:10.24% B:0.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.82% (G:4.89% B:0.11%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.40% (G:10.08% B:0.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.60% (G:4.20% B:0.09%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.781
    Redouble/Take: +0.729 (-0.051)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.219)

    Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.9%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.772..+0.790)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.717..+0.742)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Tue Nov 30 03:13:46 2021
    On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 2:31:41 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBBBBbB----A-----B-ccBc-c-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | X | | O O X O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
    | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 119 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    I was surprised that XG deemed this to be a ND. I'm doubling this
    one for sure OTB because it looks scary and some will pass. But X
    still has a lot of work to do to come home, and if O hits back then
    the tables could turn immediately. Despite X's five-point board,
    X wins only about 10% gammons according to the rollout; I was guessing
    that X would win upwards of 15% gammons.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 70.18% (G:10.24% B:0.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.82% (G:4.89% B:0.11%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.40% (G:10.08% B:0.15%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.60% (G:4.20% B:0.09%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +0.781
    Redouble/Take: +0.729 (-0.051)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.219)

    Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.9%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.772..+0.790)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.717..+0.742)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    I'm not at all surprised by this result. I thought it was D/T but I wasn't
    at all confident, and ND/T would definitely have been my second choice.
    I also saw the lack of gammons, but I didn't quantify it.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)