GNU Backgammon Position ID: 4HPkARGznMQBMA
Match ID : QQllAQAAEAAE
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| X O | | O O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |v 11 point match
| | | |
| | | O |
| X | | O |
| X X X | | O | Rolled 21
| X O X X O X | | X X O | 2 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: astrid

One move to save them all,
one move to kill him,
a lot of single hits
with hope he'll dance then.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 8:11:23 AM UTC, Axel Reichert wrote:

GNU Backgammon Position ID: 4HPkARGznMQBMA
Match ID : QQllAQAAEAAE
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| X O | | O O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |v 11 point match
| | | |
| | | O |
| X | | O |
| X X X | | O | Rolled 21
| X O X X O X | | X X O | 2 points +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: astrid

One move to save them all,
one move to kill him,
a lot of single hits
with hope he'll dance then.

I don't see any real candidates other than 4/2* 6/5* It leaves a lot of blots but, by hitting twice, we have a > 44% chance of avoiding a return
hit where our blitz will be tremendous.
With the opponent having the cube, we're aiming to get the best position possible, rather than just good enough to cash.
4/2* 6/5*.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 3:11:23 AM UTC-5, Axel Reichert wrote:

One move to save them all,
one move to kill him,
a lot of single hits
with hope he'll dance then.

I would just continue trying to blitz with 6/5* 4/2*. X has ten checkers
in the zone and O has no board. X's structure is basically committed to
the blitz. Plus, I don't see an attractive "safe" play. 10/8 4/3 I guess?
Looks too craven to me.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 8:11:23 AM UTC, Axel Reichert wrote:

GNU Backgammon Position ID: 4HPkARGznMQBMA
Match ID : QQllAQAAEAAE
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| X O | | O O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |v 11 point match
| | | |
| | | O |
| X | | O |
| X X X | | O | Rolled 21
| X O X X O X | | X X O | 2 points +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: astrid

One move to save them all,
one move to kill him,
a lot of single hits
with hope he'll dance then.

"Did you do a rollout yet?", he asked impatiently, but mit viel Tamtam.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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"peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:

"Did you do a rollout yet?", he asked impatiently, but mit viel Tamtam.

(-:

"mit viel Tamtam" (roughly: "with big fanfare") is the wrong phrasing
here. But I did:

GNU Backgammon Position ID: 4HPkARGznMQBMA
Match ID : QQllAQAAEAAE
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| X O | | O O X | 0 points
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |v 11 point match
| | | |
| | | O |
| X | | O |
| X X X | | O | Rolled 21
| X O X X O X | | X X O | 2 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: astrid
Pip counts: O 160, X 135

1. Rollout 6/5* 4/2* Eq.: +0.231
0.601 0.357 0.014 - 0.399 0.116 0.008 CL +0.441 CF +0.231
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 12) with variance reduction
1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen.
with seed 2147483647 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 6 plies:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

2. Rollout 8/7 4/2* Eq.: -0.068 (-0.298)
0.532 0.255 0.009 - 0.468 0.133 0.008 CL +0.173 CF -0.068
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

3. Rollout 24/23 10/8 Eq.: -0.095 (-0.326)
0.535 0.214 0.009 - 0.465 0.130 0.006 CL +0.141 CF -0.095
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

4. Rollout 4/2* 3/2 Eq.: -0.100 (-0.331)
0.524 0.249 0.008 - 0.476 0.137 0.009 CL +0.145 CF -0.100
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

5. Rollout 10/8 6/5* Eq.: -0.108 (-0.338)
0.524 0.243 0.010 - 0.476 0.137 0.009 CL +0.139 CF -0.108
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

6. Rollout 24/23 4/2* Eq.: -0.122 (-0.353)
0.522 0.251 0.009 - 0.478 0.144 0.009 CL +0.133 CF -0.122
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

7. Rollout 10/9 4/2* Eq.: -0.124 (-0.354)
0.521 0.244 0.008 - 0.479 0.138 0.009 CL +0.130 CF -0.124
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

8. Rollout 10/8 4/3 Eq.: -0.133 (-0.364)
0.518 0.214 0.006 - 0.482 0.128 0.006 CL +0.108 CF -0.133
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.002 CF 0.003]

I was really surprised by the big margin of the blitz play over the
competition (triple whoppers). None of the alternatives hitting one
checker looked particularly attractive (too many return shots, so better
to hit twice, more reward for your risk), but I did not expect the safer
moves 24/23 10/8 and the blot-free 10/8 4/3 to be so terrible. Yes, they
are lame, but I am ahead in the race by almost 30 pips and at least
slightly ahead in the match. If someone told me "Axel, these safe move
are really bad, guess by how much", I would have estimated at most 0.15
equity loss.

Axel

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Thursday, December 2, 2021 at 7:53:19 PM UTC, Axel Reichert wrote:

"peps...@gmail.com" <peps...@gmail.com> writes:

"Did you do a rollout yet?", he asked impatiently, but mit viel Tamtam.

(-:

"mit viel Tamtam" (roughly: "with big fanfare") is the wrong phrasing
here. ...

I learned the phrase from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbVX4LdMwPA&ab_channel=XtremeSound
The song is about darts, which does have something in common with backgammon. Namely, the importance of arithmetic in the two areas is roughly equivalent. Mental arithmetic is an important part of darts, and an important part of backgammon, but it's far from being the core skill in either discipline.

When I googled "mit viel Tamtam" in response to hearing the lyrics, I was somewhat unsatisfied. It gave stuff like "with a lot of Tamtam"
which doesn't exactly help.

So thanks for clarifying.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 12/2/2021 2:53 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:

I was really surprised by the big margin of the blitz play over the competition (triple whoppers).

I would not have guessed a triple whopper either. But take a look
at the position below, which I think is the biggest checker-play
error I've made in a while.

XGID=-ABaBDC-Aa--b-----Bbbcbb--:1:1:1:42:2:0:0:7:10

X:Me O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O O X | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 108 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

1. XG Roller+ 5/1 5/3* eq:+0.609
Player: 66.44% (G:40.71% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 33.56% (G:15.60% B:0.43%)

2. XG Roller+ 8/6 5/1 eq:+0.177 (-0.433)
Player: 53.30% (G:10.06% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 46.70% (G:7.42% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> writes:

But take a look at the position below, which I think is the biggest checker-play error I've made in a while.

Impressive! Do you remember whether you played this on auto-pilot? Or
did you see the best move but rejected it?

Best regards

Axel

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 12/4/2021 4:21 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:

Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> writes:

But take a look at the position below, which I think is the biggest
checker-play error I've made in a while.

Impressive! Do you remember whether you played this on auto-pilot? Or
did you see the best move but rejected it?

Somewhere in between. I briefly considered hitting but not very
seriously.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Sunday, December 5, 2021 at 1:47:19 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

On 12/4/2021 4:21 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:

Timothy Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> writes:

But take a look at the position below, which I think is the biggest
checker-play error I've made in a while.

Impressive! Do you remember whether you played this on auto-pilot? Or
did you see the best move but rejected it?

Somewhere in between. I briefly considered hitting but not very
seriously.

Maybe you didn't see that 5/1 5/3* dance is TG rather than a win of just 1.
If you change the rules so that you have to cash after 5/1 5/3* dance, then your blunder
must be greatly reduced.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 12/5/2021 9:03 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

If you change the rules so that you have to cash after 5/1 5/3* dance, then your blunder
must be greatly reduced.

XGID=-ABaBDC-Aa--b-----Bbbcbb--:0:0:1:42:0:0:1:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 95 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. XG Roller++ 5/1 5/3* eq:+0.450
Player: 65.85% (G:40.03% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 34.15% (G:13.93% B:0.38%)

2. XG Roller++ 8/6 5/1 eq:+0.056 (-0.394)
Player: 53.20% (G:9.06% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 46.80% (G:6.97% B:0.24%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> writes:

it's certainly not uncommon to see people botch plays like the one
below.

XGID=-HCB--A--A---------cbcaba-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 8 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 35 O: 48 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

Unbelievable. 9/6 a double whopper. Of course I understand that gaps on
5 and especially 4 are bad, but the fact than even 6/3 (not achieving a crossover, vacating one of the high points, stacking the 3) is still
much better than my automatic play of 9/6 makes me seriously doubt my understanding of the game. Yes, 4 and 5 now play much better, but 0.2?

Thanks for this position!

Axel

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Saturday, February 25, 2023 at 11:23:51 AM UTC-5, Axel Reichert wrote:

Timothy Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> writes:

it's certainly not uncommon to see people botch plays like the one
below.

XGID=-HCB--A--A---------cbcaba-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 8 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 35 O: 48 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

Unbelievable. 9/6 a double whopper. Of course I understand that gaps on
5 and especially 4 are bad, but the fact than even 6/3 (not achieving a crossover, vacating one of the high points, stacking the 3) is still
much better than my automatic play of 9/6 makes me seriously doubt my understanding of the game. Yes, 4 and 5 now play much better, but 0.2?

Thanks for this position!

Axel

You're allowed to miss once in the bearoff as we have an odd number of checkers and one miss will not change the number of rolls we have to get all of our checkers off. We absolutely can not miss twice and that's what a play like 9/6 makes possible.

Stick

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On 2/25/2023 4:37 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

You're allowed to miss once in the bearoff as we have an odd number of checkers and one miss will not change the number of rolls we have to get all of our checkers off. We absolutely can not miss twice and that's what a play like 9/6 makes possible.

Exactly right. For me, though, what surprised me most was not
that 9/6 was terrible (I already knew enough at the time to avoid
it) but that my play of 9/7 6/5 was deemed by XG to be a 0.088
blunder. I was expecting that even if it were wrong, it would be
wrong by 0.03 or 0.04 at most.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 12:33:12 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 2/25/2023 4:37 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

You're allowed to miss once in the bearoff as we have an odd number of checkers and one miss will not change the number of rolls we have to get all of our checkers off. We absolutely can not miss twice and that's what a play like 9/6 makes possible.

Exactly right. For me, though, what surprised me most was not
that 9/6 was terrible (I already knew enough at the time to avoid
it) but that my play of 9/7 6/5 was deemed by XG to be a 0.088
blunder. I was expecting that even if it were wrong, it would be
wrong by 0.03 or 0.04 at most.

---
Tim Chow

There's the immediate swings on double fours your next shake which is big but also I suspect the way you've made aces play next turn is overall detrimental.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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