"Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They Rose from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low"

by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2022 • 68 Comments

The balance of loans & leases outstanding rose on much higher vehicle
prices but much lower sales volume.

"A few weeks ago, an article on a major financial news site proclaimed
in the headline that “Car Repos Are Exploding.” The article was
circulated everywhere, and yet it was devoid of actual data on repos, it
had no chart of repos, and was really just clickbait. Most people who
spread this thing around the internet never read the article; they just
read the clickbait headline, and that was good enough. The internet is a strange place.

But the entire auto industry and auto finance industry got a good
chuckle out of it. Before there is a repo, the borrower must be
delinquent on the loan. If the borrower falls behind on payments and
cannot catch up and thereby cannot cure the delinquency, the lender will repossess the vehicle and sell it at auction.

So before the number of repos can spike, the rate of delinquencies of
30+ days must spike, because it comes first.

As we’ve seen with data from the New York Fed today, there is no “explosion” of delinquencies, and therefore no explosion of repos. Repos remain low compared to historic levels. They ticked up from the record
lows last year and are in the process of increasing to more normal levels."

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/02/auto-loan-delinquencies-and-repos-are-not-exploding-they-rose-from-record-lows-and-are-still-historically-low/

TB

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:43:20 PM UTC-7, Technobarbarian wrote:

"Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They Rose from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low"

by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2022 • 68 Comments

The balance of loans & leases outstanding rose on much higher vehicle
prices but much lower sales volume.

"A few weeks ago, an article on a major financial news site proclaimed
in the headline that “Car Repos Are Exploding.” The article was circulated everywhere, and yet it was devoid of actual data on repos, it
had no chart of repos, and was really just clickbait. Most people who
spread this thing around the internet never read the article; they just
read the clickbait headline, and that was good enough. The internet is a strange place.

But the entire auto industry and auto finance industry got a good
chuckle out of it. Before there is a repo, the borrower must be
delinquent on the loan. If the borrower falls behind on payments and
cannot catch up and thereby cannot cure the delinquency, the lender will repossess the vehicle and sell it at auction.

So before the number of repos can spike, the rate of delinquencies of
30+ days must spike, because it comes first.

As we’ve seen with data from the New York Fed today, there is no “explosion” of delinquencies, and therefore no explosion of repos. Repos remain low compared to historic levels. They ticked up from the record
lows last year and are in the process of increasing to more normal levels."

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/02/auto-loan-delinquencies-and-repos-are-not-exploding-they-rose-from-record-lows-and-are-still-historically-low/

TB

In another life, I tried my hand as a "Repo Man", and promptly decided is was an unacceptable, risky, line of work! I was lured into it, to repo a Yamaha 500cc, 2-stroke, motorcycle... I had trouble starting it, and the irate, former owner,
nearly caught me! Yowza!

Sneaky Pete

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/4/2022 7:47 PM, film...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:43:20 PM UTC-7, Technobarbarian wrote:

"Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They Rose >> from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low"

by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2022 • 68 Comments

The balance of loans & leases outstanding rose on much higher vehicle
prices but much lower sales volume.

"A few weeks ago, an article on a major financial news site proclaimed
in the headline that “Car Repos Are Exploding.” The article was
circulated everywhere, and yet it was devoid of actual data on repos, it
had no chart of repos, and was really just clickbait. Most people who
spread this thing around the internet never read the article; they just
read the clickbait headline, and that was good enough. The internet is a
strange place.

But the entire auto industry and auto finance industry got a good
chuckle out of it. Before there is a repo, the borrower must be
delinquent on the loan. If the borrower falls behind on payments and
cannot catch up and thereby cannot cure the delinquency, the lender will
repossess the vehicle and sell it at auction.

So before the number of repos can spike, the rate of delinquencies of
30+ days must spike, because it comes first.

As we’ve seen with data from the New York Fed today, there is no
“explosion” of delinquencies, and therefore no explosion of repos. Repos >> remain low compared to historic levels. They ticked up from the record
lows last year and are in the process of increasing to more normal levels." >>
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/02/auto-loan-delinquencies-and-repos-are-not-exploding-they-rose-from-record-lows-and-are-still-historically-low/

TB

In another life, I tried my hand as a "Repo Man", and promptly decided is was an unacceptable, risky, line of work! I was lured into it, to repo a Yamaha 500cc, 2-stroke, motorcycle... I had trouble starting it, and the irate, former owner,

nearly caught me! Yowza!

Sneaky Pete

Ahhh! So that was you! Here all these years I thought it was just some
hippie liberal lowlife trying to steal my bike! HawHawHaw!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 7:54:24 PM UTC-7, kmiller wrote:

On 8/4/2022 7:47 PM, film...@gmail.com wrote:

On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:43:20 PM UTC-7, Technobarbarian wrote:

"Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They Rose
from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low"

by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2022 • 68 Comments

The balance of loans & leases outstanding rose on much higher vehicle
prices but much lower sales volume.

"A few weeks ago, an article on a major financial news site proclaimed
in the headline that “Car Repos Are Exploding.” The article was
circulated everywhere, and yet it was devoid of actual data on repos, it >> had no chart of repos, and was really just clickbait. Most people who
spread this thing around the internet never read the article; they just >> read the clickbait headline, and that was good enough. The internet is a >> strange place.

But the entire auto industry and auto finance industry got a good
chuckle out of it. Before there is a repo, the borrower must be
delinquent on the loan. If the borrower falls behind on payments and
cannot catch up and thereby cannot cure the delinquency, the lender will >> repossess the vehicle and sell it at auction.

So before the number of repos can spike, the rate of delinquencies of
30+ days must spike, because it comes first.

As we’ve seen with data from the New York Fed today, there is no
“explosion” of delinquencies, and therefore no explosion of repos. Repos
remain low compared to historic levels. They ticked up from the record
lows last year and are in the process of increasing to more normal levels."

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/02/auto-loan-delinquencies-and-repos-are-not-exploding-they-rose-from-record-lows-and-are-still-historically-low/

TB

In another life, I tried my hand as a "Repo Man", and promptly decided is was an unacceptable, risky, line of work! I was lured into it, to repo a Yamaha 500cc, 2-stroke, motorcycle... I had trouble starting it, and the irate, former owner, nearly

caught me! Yowza!

Sneaky Pete

Ahhh! So that was you! Here all these years I thought it was just some hippie liberal lowlife trying to steal my bike! HawHawHaw!

It was an interesting line of work... You have the key to the rig, all the finance paperwork, and the law has been notified, so they don't come running when the former owner calls them, reporting his stolen car.... I did (your) motorcycle, and a
few other cars, @ $25 ea.... It was exciting easy money in the early 70s... My career came to an end, when one of our crew was caught, and beaten to a pulp, by an angry, big red faced, monster! The flake was arrested, & charged, but that didn't
help Freddie, when he was getting stomped into a grease spot, on that carport floor! He was hauled off to the ER!

"Shadow" the Repo Man

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Technobarbarian wrote:

"Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They Rose from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low"

by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2022 • 68 Comments

The balance of loans & leases outstanding rose on much higher vehicle
prices but much lower sales volume.

"A few weeks ago, an article on a major financial news site proclaimed
in the headline that “Car Repos Are Exploding.” The article was circulated everywhere, and yet it was devoid of actual data on repos, it
had no chart of repos, and was really just clickbait. Most people who
spread this thing around the internet never read the article; they just
read the clickbait headline, and that was good enough. The internet is a strange place.

But the entire auto industry and auto finance industry got a good
chuckle out of it. Before there is a repo, the borrower must be
delinquent on the loan. If the borrower falls behind on payments and
cannot catch up and thereby cannot cure the delinquency, the lender will repossess the vehicle and sell it at auction.

So before the number of repos can spike, the rate of delinquencies of
30+ days must spike, because it comes first.

As we’ve seen with data from the New York Fed today, there is no “explosion” of delinquencies, and therefore no explosion of repos. Repos remain low compared to historic levels. They ticked up from the record
lows last year and are in the process of increasing to more normal levels."

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/02/auto-loan-delinquencies-and-repos-are-not-exploding-they-rose-from-record-lows-and-are-still-historically-low/

TB

Well that's one persons vision but other sources with data paints a
different outcome in the near future.

A Flood of Repossessed Cars Poised to Hit the Used Car Market https://tinyurl.com/29qcfru7

--
Frank Howell

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 8/7/2022 9:14 AM, Frank Howell wrote:

Technobarbarian wrote:

"Nope, Auto-Loan Delinquencies and Repos Are Not “Exploding”: They
Rose from Record Lows and Are Still Historically Low"

by Wolf Richter • Aug 2, 2022 • 68 Comments

The balance of loans & leases outstanding rose on much higher vehicle
prices but much lower sales volume.

"A few weeks ago, an article on a major financial news site proclaimed
in the headline that “Car Repos Are Exploding.” The article was
circulated everywhere, and yet it was devoid of actual data on repos,
it had no chart of repos, and was really just clickbait. Most people
who spread this thing around the internet never read the article; they
just read the clickbait headline, and that was good enough. The
internet is a strange place.

But the entire auto industry and auto finance industry got a good
chuckle out of it. Before there is a repo, the borrower must be
delinquent on the loan. If the borrower falls behind on payments and
cannot catch up and thereby cannot cure the delinquency, the lender
will repossess the vehicle and sell it at auction.

So before the number of repos can spike, the rate of delinquencies of
30+ days must spike, because it comes first.

As we’ve seen with data from the New York Fed today, there is no
“explosion” of delinquencies, and therefore no explosion of repos.
Repos remain low compared to historic levels. They ticked up from the
record lows last year and are in the process of increasing to more o
normal levels."

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/08/02/auto-loan-delinquencies-and-repos-are-not-exploding-they-rose-from-record-lows-and-are-still-historically-low/


TB

Well that's one persons vision but other sources with data paints a
different outcome in the near future.

A Flood of Repossessed Cars Poised to Hit the Used Car Market https://tinyurl.com/29qcfru7

The article I posted was basically about what's happening in the
market right now. Your article is talking about what *might* happen in
the future. I agree with him that now is not a particularly good time to
buy a car, new or used. But, the idea that huge numbers of cars will be repossessed is highly speculative. The people making those loans have
done their own math. They expect some loans to go bad. They also expect
to turn a profit.

TB

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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