Let's do this with a proper thread. Can Scotland finally qualify for the second round of an international competition? Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
We'll find out in a couple of hours. Lineups:
Germany
Manuel Neuer
Joshua Kimmich
Antonio Rüdiger
Jonathan Tah
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Robert Andrich
Toni Kroos
Jamal Musiala
(c) İlkay Gündoğan
Florian Wirtz
Kai Havertz
Muller on the bench :-/
Angus Gunn
Ryan Porteous
Jack Hendry
Kieran Tierney
Anthony Ralston
Scott McTominay
Callum McGregor
(c) Andrew Robertson
Ryan Christie
John McGinn
Che Adams
Robertson in a wingback position. Interesting
Let's do this with a proper thread. Can Scotland finally qualify for the second round of an international competition?
being their old ruthless selves?
We'll find out in a couple of hours. Lineups:
Germany
Manuel Neuer
Joshua Kimmich
Antonio Rüdiger
Jonathan Tah
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Robert Andrich
Toni Kroos
Jamal Musiala
(c) İlkay Gündoğan
Florian Wirtz
Kai Havertz
Muller on the bench :-/
Angus Gunn
Ryan Porteous
Jack Hendry
Kieran Tierney
Anthony Ralston
Scott McTominay
Callum McGregor
(c) Andrew Robertson
Ryan Christie
John McGinn
Che Adams
Robertson in a wingback position. Interesting
Let's do this with a proper thread. Can Scotland finally qualify for the second round of an international competition? Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
On 6/14/2024 2:36 PM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
Let's do this with a proper thread. Can Scotland finally qualify for the
second round of an international competition? Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Not the right time for novabbs to crash...
Anyway, Germany good, Scotland extremely poor. This could end in a
bloodbath.
On 6/14/2024 4:08 PM, MH wrote:
Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Yes
In fairness, they are more reminiscent of the brilliant 2010-2014 team
than some other editions. But let's see them against better opposition.
On 6/14/2024 4:33 PM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On 6/14/2024 4:08 PM, MH wrote:
Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Yes
In fairness, they are more reminiscent of the brilliant 2010-2014 team
than some other editions. But let's see them against better opposition.
FT: 5-1 Germany
The big negative score is a problem for Scotland. Even if they can win
one match, 3 points and a big negative GD may not be enough to qualify
from 3rd place.
Germany up at the half 3-0, Scotland down to 10 men. Scotland are not
going to win a game.
Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Yes
Fantasy Scout Cycle 1 podium, you'll never sing that!
On 6/14/2024 4:33 PM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On 6/14/2024 4:08 PM, MH wrote:
Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Yes
In fairness, they are more reminiscent of the brilliant 2010-2014 team
than some other editions. But let's see them against better opposition.
FT: 5-1 Germany
On 6/14/2024 5:12 PM, MH wrote:
The big negative score is a problem for Scotland. Even if they canGD is not relevant within the group, but yeah, there could be multiple
win one match, 3 points and a big negative GD may not be enough to
qualify from 3rd place.
teams tied on 3 or even 2 points in contention for the last 3rd place
position. usually 4 points gets you into the knockout round in a
format like this, whereas 3 is pretty uncertain and you need to be
very very lucky to get in with two.
Based on my simulations, 3 points and a zero GD get you in 90% of the
time. 3 points and -1 GD, about 80%.
Somehow I think there will not be a lot of draws in this competition.
I could be completely wrong, but my reasoning is that with higher
scoring (thanks to VAR, far more penalties, five subs, longer injury
time and so on > as well as more disparity between top and bottom
teams in a 24 team
format), the chance of draws goes down.
Could be, but this is already the third edition of the Euro with 24
teams, the second one with VAR. In terms of injury time, looks like UEFA
is not on the same page as FIFA and the EPL, and we have rlatively short
injury times (only 3 minutes today in the second half, maybe out of compassion with the Scots?)
The big negative score is a problem for Scotland. Even if they can winGD is not relevant within the group, but yeah, there could be multiple
one match, 3 points and a big negative GD may not be enough to qualify
from 3rd place.
teams tied on 3 or even 2 points in contention for the last 3rd place position. usually 4 points gets you into the knockout round in a format like this, whereas 3 is pretty uncertain and you need to be very very
lucky to get in with two.
Somehow I think there will not be a lot of draws in this competition. I
could be completely wrong, but my reasoning is that with higher scoring (thanks to VAR, far more penalties, five subs, longer injury time and so
on > as well as more disparity between top and bottom teams in a 24 team format), the chance of draws goes down.
Futbolmetrix wrote:
On 6/14/2024 4:33 PM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On 6/14/2024 4:08 PM, MH wrote:
Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Yes
In fairness, they are more reminiscent of the brilliant 2010-2014
team than some other editions. But let's see them against better
opposition.
FT: 5-1 Germany
Oh dear.
There were Scotland fans there today who literally paid hundreds
(thousands in some cases) of Euros for their tickets. Still, well done
to the Tartan Army for their tongue in cheek "You're not singing
anymore!" chant when they pulled back a goal (via an own goal!) to make
it 4-1.
RM
Any cases of 2 points getting you through ? I was thinking Uruguay
getting to KO round with two draws in 1986 (and a horrendously bad GD
from the beating the Danes gave them), but that was still 2 points for
a
win, and unless I am mistaken they just pipped the Hungarians who had
one win and an even worse GD (USSR thumped them).
Somehow I think there will not be a lot of draws in this competition.
I could be completely wrong, but my reasoning is that with higher
scoring (thanks to VAR, far more penalties, five subs, longer injury
time and so on > as well as more disparity between top and bottom
teams in a 24 team
format), the chance of draws goes down.
Could be, but this is already the third edition of the Euro with 24
teams, the second one with VAR. In terms of injury time, looks like
UEFA
is not on the same page as FIFA and the EPL, and we have rlatively
short
injury times (only 3 minutes today in the second half, maybe out of
compassion with the Scots?)
How low have you fallen! Ten years ago, I had you as one of the two
possible winners of cycle 1: https://fantasyscoutblog.wordpress.com/2014/07/26/a-new-prediction-method/
On 2024-06-14 15:34, Real_Mardin wrote:
Futbolmetrix wrote:
On 6/14/2024 4:33 PM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On 6/14/2024 4:08 PM, MH wrote:
Will Germany go back to
being their old ruthless selves?
Yes
In fairness, they are more reminiscent of the brilliant 2010-2014
team than some other editions. But let's see them against better
opposition.
FT: 5-1 Germany
Oh dear.
There were Scotland fans there today who literally paid hundreds
(thousands in some cases) of Euros for their tickets. Still, well done
to the Tartan Army for their tongue in cheek "You're not singing
anymore!" chant when they pulled back a goal (via an own goal!) to make
it 4-1.
It was a poor performance, compared to some of theirs in qualification
eg. vs. Spain and Norway.
Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:
MH wrote:
Any cases of 2 points getting you through ? I was thinking Uruguay
getting to KO round with two draws in 1986 (and a horrendously bad GD
from the beating the Danes gave them), but that was still 2 points for
a
win, and unless I am mistaken they just pipped the Hungarians who had
one win and an even worse GD (USSR thumped them).
Yes, that's correct. Interestingly, Hungary would have qualified with 3
points per win, but Bulgaria (2 draws and one loss) would still have
made it to the R16 with 2 points.
If I’m not mistaken today’s results have increased
the likelihood quite a bit that three points and a
neutral goal difference will suffice for a third-placed
team to go through - unless either Croatia or Albania
win against Italy and Spain, respectively; Scotland
win against Hungary; or Hungary win big (by four
goals) against Scotland.
MH wrote:
Any cases of 2 points getting you through ? I was thinking Uruguay
getting to KO round with two draws in 1986 (and a horrendously bad GD
from the beating the Danes gave them), but that was still 2 points for
a
win, and unless I am mistaken they just pipped the Hungarians who had
one win and an even worse GD (USSR thumped them).
Yes, that's correct. Interestingly, Hungary would have qualified with 3 points per win, but Bulgaria (2 draws and one loss) would still have
made it to the R16 with 2 points.
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