On 2024-09-25 05:47, milivella wrote:

Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.

Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.

Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.

One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and the ability to avoid injury than of skill. Viz. Olivier Giroud, top player
in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.

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Cheers
milivella

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MH <MHnospam@ucalgary.ca> wrote:

On 2024-09-25 05:47, milivella wrote:

Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.

Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.

Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not perfect.

One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and the ability to avoid injury than of skill. Viz. Olivier Giroud, top player
in 2nd cycle,

The thing with Olivier is that if you showed his
highlight reel to people who have no idea of
football you might just be able to convince them
that Giroud is the best striker ever.

Ciao,
Werner

though Griezmann could pass him.

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Cheers
milivella

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On 2024-09-27 20:33, milivella wrote:

milivella:

MH:

On 2024-09-25 19:57, milivella wrote:

MH:

On 2024-09-25 05:47, milivella wrote:

Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not
perfect.

One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity
and the ability to avoid injury than of skill.

Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.

Bad example.

Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries
among other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much but
he was highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented Wolfram
Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).

Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49

These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)

In other words: these are good examples of *your* thesis. :)

(your thesis = given a high enough level of skill, the FS score is a
measure of ability to avoid injury)

Yes that is what I meant. .

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Cheers
milivella

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On 2024-09-28 11:26, milivella wrote:

MH:

On 2024-09-27 20:33, milivella wrote:

milivella:

MH:

On 2024-09-25 19:57, milivella wrote:

MH:

On 2024-09-25 05:47, milivella wrote:

Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is
not perfect.

One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity >>>>>>> and the ability to avoid injury than of skill.

Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.

Bad example.

Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries
among other things.  or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much
but he was highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented
Wolfram Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ?  (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).

Barkley: 39 points
Wilshere: 36
Wuttke: 5
Cassano: 49

These are _not_ examples of player with high FS scores. :)

In other words: these are good examples of *your* thesis. :)

(your thesis = given a high enough level of skill, the FS score is a
measure of ability to avoid injury)

Yes that is what I meant. .

I indipendently realized it a few minutes ago, so it wasn't you being unclear, it was me being literally slow. :) But thanks for replying!

So basically I said (among other things): "There are players with high
skill and low health* who have a high FS score (so one cannot say that
the FS score is much more correlated to health than to skill)."

And you replied: "There are players with (comparably?) high skills and *actually* low health who have a low FS score (so your argument is not valid?)."

Anyway, this debate made me realize (after just eighteen years...**)
that, _assuming_ the FS score is a good proxy for what a player
*actually* realized in his career, in FS what we can do is to assess the *potential* of a player, so the FS score of a player you picked is not a
good measure of your scouting skill. Again, the hope is that the FS
score of _all_ the players you picked (over a couple of years) is
correlated to your scouting skills (i.e., that eternal personal bad luck
does not exist...).

Good point. Which is why I never thought average score was a
particularly good metric, and was reasonably happy we disgarded it after
one cycle.

Curious, though, what would be the standings of cycle one with the rules
of cycle 2 (8 point penalty) or the later 10 point penalty. I guess I
could figure that out easily enough if I weren't lazy, and so far behind
on work (happens fast once you are actually retired and just doing
things out of a sense of obligation).

Conversely, if we have kept the cycle 1 rules what would the standings
be for each cycle. I know that most of us might not have picked the
same way, as we knew the rules had changed and I think a lot of us were
nervous about the cost of players.

* "health": a twisted way to say the opposite of "number of injuries" or "injury-proneness".

** I told you I'm slow!

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Cheers
milivella

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On 2024-09-25 19:57, milivella wrote:

MH:

On 2024-09-25 05:47, milivella wrote:

Raphael Varane announced his retirement from professional football.

Seven 2nd cycle players have a higher Fantasy Scout score than him.

Fantasy Scout score is a good assessment of skills, but it is not
perfect.

One could argue that is is a much better assessment of longevity and
the ability to avoid injury than of skill.  Viz. Olivier Giroud, top
player in 2nd cycle, though Griezmann could pass him.

(I may have a chance to confute MH! :) Even though I have to take his
words literally, which is probably cheating...)

Well like "Blessed are the cheesemakers" statement, it was not meant to
be taken literally.

Clearly some level of skill (whether amazing technique or just doing
one's job really well) is required to get picked for a FS nation's
national team at all. To stay in there long enough to accumulate more
than 50 points does depend on:

1) Who else is competing for the same job(s) ?
2) Staying injury free at key times (especially during the big
tournaments, where, including warm-ups, players can get 10-15 points in
a month, perhaps more.
3) Luck in the sense that competitors can go down injured at key times
(eg. watch Martin Zubimendi finally get an extended run with Spain right
now)

Counter-examples, even limiting myself to players picked in FS.

Players with low LAATAI (=longevity and ability to avoid injury) but
high FS score (and skill, arguably):
- Neymar

Bad example. First capped in 2010 as a teenager. Over 100 caps and
over 200 FS points. That points to a great deal of longevity and being
free from injury. During his prime at Barca he played 41-51 games a
season, so no extended injuries really.
By 2018 he already had 96 caps and 60 goals. So probably missed very
few games 2012-2018. I would call that longevity.

- Varane

Did not miss all that many club games during 2014 to 2021, which is the
period where most of his numerous caps came from. Given the number of
strong central defenders France has had, his longevity and FS points
totals are pretty good

- Khedira

2013-2014 with Real are bad, but was it injury or just not getting in
the team ? Next three years with Juve pretty good. Did manage to
participate in 3 WCs and 2 Euros, is that not longevity of a kind.

- Kroos

492 league games for top clubs, 114 caps - pull the other one !


Better examples might be Ross Barkley, career blighted by injuries among
other things. or maybe Jack Wilshere (never liked him much but he was
highly hyped), or the allegedly phenomenally talented Wolfram Wuttke.
Cassano, perhaps ? (not all about injuries in his case, perhaps).

Players with high LAATAI but a FS score of 0 (and lower skill compared
to a lot of other players, arguably):
- Fernando
- Scott Sinclair
- Zapater
- Noble

Of course, it would be more elegant of me not to mention players of mine
in the former list and to mention them in the latter, but what it's not
my fault if I have great-but-frail players and no bad footballer...

(Anyway, I guess we all agree about FS score being a very nosiy proxy
for skill.)

--
Cheers
milivella

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