Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup of
Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two clubs
are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win in
Munich. I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field
advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter also
has history on their side, when is the last time a new team has won the Championsliga?

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont show for whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very short
summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in summer transfer
news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander has moved to Real, I have
not seen any conformation, nor have I seen confirmation that Wirtz has
signed for Liverpool. All I have seen is that he doesnt want to sign for bayern, which means he will be signing for bayern next month.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-05-31 06:23, Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup of
Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two clubs
are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win in Munich.  I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field
advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter also
has history on their side, when is the last time a new team has won the Championsliga?

two years ago, and they beat Inter to do it.

Apparently there is also a history of teams winning their first ever CL
or EC1 in Munich as well.

Chelsea 2012
Dortmund 1997
Marseille 1993
Nottingham Forest 1979

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont show for whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very short
summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in summer transfer
news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander has moved to Real, I have
not seen any conformation, nor have I seen confirmation that Wirtz has
signed for Liverpool. All I have seen is that he doesnt want to sign for bayern, which means he will be signing for bayern next month.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

MH wrote:

On 2025-05-31 06:23, Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup
of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two
clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win
in Munich.  I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter
also has history on their side, when is the last time a new team
has won the Championsliga?

two years ago, and they beat Inter to do it.

Apparently there is also a history of teams winning their first ever
CL or EC1 in Munich as well.

Chelsea 2012
Dortmund 1997
Marseille 1993
Nottingham Forest 1979

PSG would be the first french team to win it since OM, so history is
definitely not on their side.

In any case, whoever wins, this will be an atypical year. First UCL
chamion that's not from England, Spain or Germany / Bayern since Inter
2010, that is 15 years. If PSG win, they will be the first french
european champion since OM 93 and only the second over-all.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FF wrote:

MH wrote:

On 2025-05-31 06:23, Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club
team in the World at the moment. That is until next month
when that World Cup of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I
am not even sure if these two clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight
favourites to win in Munich.  I would say playing in
Munich gives Inter a home field advantage, though in
todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter also has
history on their side, when is the last time a new team
has won the Championsliga?

two years ago, and they beat Inter to do it.

Apparently there is also a history of teams winning their
first ever CL or EC1 in Munich as well.

Chelsea 2012
Dortmund 1997
Marseille 1993
Nottingham Forest 1979

PSG would be the first french team to win it since OM, so
history is definitely not on their side.

In any case, whoever wins, this will be an atypical year.
First UCL champion that's not from England, Spain or Germany /
Bayern since Inter 2010, that is 15 years. If PSG win, they
will be the first french european champion since OM 93 and
only the second over-all.

I'm currently favouring Inter-Milan, but I just hope the Final
tonight is more entertaining than the two minor UEFA finals
we've had this season, which apart from the last twenty minutes
in the last one were actually quite boring as far as 'events' go.

I hope tonight's game is a lively as the those Inter-Milan -
Barcelona semi-final legs were! Plenty of goals and may the best
team win.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Not had the time to watch these two teams much this season so not too
sure what to expect, but it's Saturday night and the MOST IMPORTANT GAME
IN EUROPEAN CLUB FOOTBALL so count me in!


I agree that it's refreshing to see a final not involving EPL / La Liga
or Bundesliga sides, but not sure I can really bring myself to cheer for
the super rich PSG.

Forza La Grande Inter!


RM

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FF <...@yahoo.com> wrote:

MH wrote:

On 2025-05-31 06:23, Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup
of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two
clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win
in Munich.  I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field
advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter
also has history on their side, when is the last time a new team
has won the Championsliga?

two years ago, and they beat Inter to do it.

Apparently there is also a history of teams winning their first ever
CL or EC1 in Munich as well.

Chelsea 2012
Dortmund 1997
Marseille 1993
Nottingham Forest 1979

PSG would be the first french team to win it since OM, so history is definitely not on their side.

In any case, whoever wins, this will be an atypical year. First UCL
chamion that's not from England, Spain or Germany / Bayern since Inter
2010, that is 15 years. If PSG win, they will be the first french
european champion since OM 93 and only the second over-all.

French teams are 2-14 in European finals, quite the
awful record.


Ciao,
Werner

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup of
Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two clubs
are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win in
Munich. I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field
advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter
also has history on their side, when is the last time a new team has
won the Championsliga?

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont show for
whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very short
summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in summer
transfer news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander has moved to
Real, I have not seen any conformation, nor have I seen confirmation
that Wirtz has signed for Liverpool. All I have seen is that he
doesnt want to sign for bayern, which means he will be signing for
bayern next month.

1 - 0 PSG,

I think there was a defensive mistake by Inter (believe it or not).
Hakimi was way too free there.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

I was thinking PSG need to score a goal with all there early domination,
well they have scored 2 in the first 20 mins. Game over. The start of
the PSG dynasty begins.



On 2025-05-31 3:16 p.m., FF wrote:

Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup of
Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two clubs
are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win in
Munich. I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field
advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter
also has history on their side, when is the last time a new team has
won the Championsliga?

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont show for
whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very short
summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in summer
transfer news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander has moved to
Real, I have not seen any conformation, nor have I seen confirmation
that Wirtz has signed for Liverpool. All I have seen is that he
doesnt want to sign for bayern, which means he will be signing for
bayern next month.

1 - 0 PSG,

I think there was a defensive mistake by Inter (believe it or not).
Hakimi was way too free there.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Binder Dundat wrote:

On 2025-05-31 3:16 p.m., FF wrote:

Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in
the World at the moment. That is until next month when that World
Cup of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if
these two clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to
win in Munich. I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home
field advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter,
Inter also has history on their side, when is the last time a new
team has won the Championsliga?

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont show
for whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very
short summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in
summer transfer news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander has
moved to Real, I have not seen any conformation, nor have I seen confirmation that Wirtz has signed for Liverpool. All I have seen
is that he doesnt want to sign for bayern, which means he will be
signing for bayern next month.

1 - 0 PSG,

I think there was a defensive mistake by Inter (believe it or not).
Hakimi was way too free there.

I was thinking PSG need to score a goal with all there early
domination, well they have scored 2 in the first 20 mins. Game over.
The start of the PSG dynasty begins.

I don't think it's over yet. It's uphill but Inter will surely try.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FF wrote:

Binder Dundat wrote:

On 2025-05-31 3:16 p.m., FF wrote:

Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in
the World at the moment. That is until next month when that
World Cup of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure
if these two clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to
win in Munich. I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home
field advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really
matter, Inter also has history on their side, when is the last
time a new team has won the Championsliga?

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont show
for whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very
short summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in
summer transfer news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander has
moved to Real, I have not seen any conformation, nor have I seen confirmation that Wirtz has signed for Liverpool. All I have
seen is that he doesnt want to sign for bayern, which means he
will be signing for bayern next month.

1 - 0 PSG,

I think there was a defensive mistake by Inter (believe it or
not). Hakimi was way too free there.

I was thinking PSG need to score a goal with all there early
domination, well they have scored 2 in the first 20 mins. Game
over. The start of the PSG dynasty begins.

I don't think it's over yet. It's uphill but Inter will surely try.

Yesss.

3 - 0 and now it's indeed over.

Excellent quick attack by PSG, with a very technical pass by Dembele I
think. In any case they have been the ones to show more football.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FF wrote:

FF wrote:

Binder Dundat wrote:

On 2025-05-31 3:16 p.m., FF wrote:

Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team
in the World at the moment. That is until next month when that
World Cup of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even
sure if these two clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to
win in Munich. I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a
home field advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter also has history on their side, when is the last
time a new team has won the Championsliga?

Early projections show a 1-0 win, but our projections dont
show for whom?

Summer is over now here on the Iceberg, It was a hot but very
short summer, so there is not a lot of transfer news. but in
summer transfer news, I am still not sure if Trent Alexander
has moved to Real, I have not seen any conformation, nor have
I seen confirmation that Wirtz has signed for Liverpool. All
I have seen is that he doesnt want to sign for bayern, which
means he will be signing for bayern next month.

1 - 0 PSG,

I think there was a defensive mistake by Inter (believe it or
not). Hakimi was way too free there.

I was thinking PSG need to score a goal with all there early
domination, well they have scored 2 in the first 20 mins. Game
over. The start of the PSG dynasty begins.

I don't think it's over yet. It's uphill but Inter will surely try.

Yesss.

3 - 0 and now it's indeed over.

Excellent quick attack by PSG, with a very technical pass by Dembele I
think. In any case they have been the ones to show more football.

So basically, it's Mbappe, Neymar and Messi out, and Enrique in, and
the result is truly amazing.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FF wrote:

FF wrote:

3 - 0 and now it's indeed over.

Excellent quick attack by PSG, with a very technical pass by
Dembele I think. In any case they have been the ones to show
more football.

So basically, it's Mbappe, Neymar and Messi out, and Enrique
in, and the result is truly amazing.

5-0 is a bit of a disgrace really. Great for PSG, but you
wouldn't normally expect a Champions League Final to be so
one-sided.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Blueshirt wrote:

FF wrote:

FF wrote:

3 - 0 and now it's indeed over.

Excellent quick attack by PSG, with a very technical pass by
Dembele I think. In any case they have been the ones to show
more football.

So basically, it's Mbappe, Neymar and Messi out, and Enrique
in, and the result is truly amazing.

5-0 is a bit of a disgrace really. Great for PSG, but you
wouldn't normally expect a Champions League Final to be so
one-sided.

It's a bit too harsh I think. The second goal especially was more than
a bit lucky. But they were indeed very good at managing the situation.
Well, a few PL teams can take confort in this score. :)

All this said, PSG are one of the 3 super-rich teams of today's
football, so one can say the result is not completely fair. But well,
that's football, since quite some time, and we also have to admit that
on the field the team played really well.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FT:


Paris Saint-Germain 5 - Internazionale 0


Ugh.


I feel cheated enough having given up time to watch it on tv. My heart
goes out to the Inter fans who went to the trouble and expense of
travelling to Germany to see their team collapse after 20 minutes.



RM

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

In article <a985fc6a165a0e199edd078a4ba67329@www.novabbs.com>,
Real_Mardin <realmardinrss@proton.me> wrote:

FT:

Paris Saint-Germain 5 - Internazionale 0

Ugh.

I feel cheated enough having given up time to watch it on tv. My heart
goes out to the Inter fans who went to the trouble and expense of
travelling to Germany to see their team collapse after 20 minutes.

RM

I did say PSG did I?
--
Member - Liberal International This is doctor@nk.ca Ici doctor@nk.ca
Yahweh, King & country!Never Satan President Republic!Beware AntiChrist rising! Look at Psalms 14 and 53 on Atheism ;
Australia -Save the Nation from Donald Trump - Vote out Albanese!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Real_Mardin wrote:

Incidentally, this is now the biggest winning margin in a Champions
League final, beating the previous record, which was AC Milan's 4-0
win over Barcelona in Athens way back in 1994.

Was there a bigger winning margin in the old days before the UCL ?
There was Steaua unfortunately, in 89, also by Milan and also 4 - 0.
But still less than 5.

Anyway, I don't feel cheated at all. It was a good game. It's that
classical situation when a team takes a significant advantage so the
other one has to risk in order to have a chance to win. If team A know
what they're doing, and with a bit of luck, things can turn ugly, as
they did tonight. After the game I now thing PSG were indeed a bit
better but not much, and the score is too harsh as I said.

Incidentally, I don't know how much relevance it has but I did predict
a few years back that with the arrival of the video ref, football
scores will gradually get bigger, especially at the top. Looking at
this year's UCL gives the impression that things do indeed move in that direction. It remains to be seen if this holds true and how big it will
be.
(In the 5 games of the semis and the final, there were a grand total of
22 goals, if I counted correctly. How many times did this happen before
the video ref ? I'd guess this is also a record.)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Incidentally, this is now the biggest winning margin in a Champions
League final, beating the previous record, which was AC Milan's 4-0 win
over Barcelona in Athens way back in 1994.


RM

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sat, 31 May 2025 23:12:50 +0000, FF wrote:

Was there a bigger winning margin in the old days before the UCL ?

There wasn't. Real Madrid 7 - Eintracht Frankfurt 3 from 1960 had more
goals but still only a four goal winning margin.


RM

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Blueshirt wrote:

I hope tonight's game is a lively as the those Inter-Milan -
Barcelona semi-final legs were! Plenty of goals and may the best
team win.

You got both your wishes so you have every reason to be happy. :)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sat, 31 May 2025 21:09:31 +0000, Blueshirt wrote:

5-0 is a bit of a disgrace really. Great for PSG, but you
wouldn't normally expect a Champions League Final to be so
one-sided.

I am SOOO disappointed that the final was a letdown...but congrats PSG,
I guess...

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sat, 31 May 2025 21:09:31 +0000, Blueshirt wrote:

5-0 is a bit of a disgrace really. Great for PSG, but you
wouldn't normally expect a Champions League Final to be so
one-sided.

I am SOOO disappointed that the final was a letdown...but
congrats PSG, I guess...

Internazionale fans will feel let down as their team collapsed.
But PSG have built a very good team intent on winning the UEFA
Champions League so they were always going to get there at some
stage.

PSG deserved it last night, the best team won... so well done to
them.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

FF wrote:

Blueshirt wrote:

I hope tonight's game is a lively as the those Inter-Milan -
Barcelona semi-final legs were! Plenty of goals and may the
best team win.

You got both your wishes so you have every reason to be happy.
:)

As a neutral it was a good game to watch, just not much of a
competition after twenty minutes.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

A few observations:


Inter finished the "league" stage 4th, PSG 15th.

In the knockout rounds PSG beat Brest (9th in Ligue 1), Liverpool (EPL winners), Astol Villa (6th in EPL) and Arsenal (2nd in EPL).


Inter beat Feyenoord (3rd in Eredivisie), Bayern Munich (Bundesliga
winners) and Barcelona (La Liga winners).


Obviously PSG were by far the better team on the night of the final, but
I can't help but wonder were Inter the more deserving team thoughout the
course of the competition?


Furthermore, that a team can finish the "league" stage 15th and still go
on to win the competition has me questioning whether the new competition
format is really fit for purpose.



RM

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Werner Pichler <no_email@invalid.invalid> wrote:

FF <...@yahoo.com> wrote:

MH wrote:

On 2025-05-31 06:23, Binder Dundat wrote:

Finally, we can once and for all find out the best club team in the
World at the moment. That is until next month when that World Cup
of Clubs thing takes place in USA, I am not even sure if these two
clubs are in that thing?

According to the BWin bookmakers, PSG are slight favourites to win
in Munich.  I would say playing in Munich gives Inter a home field
advantage, though in todays world it doesn't really matter, Inter
also has history on their side, when is the last time a new team
has won the Championsliga?

two years ago, and they beat Inter to do it.

Apparently there is also a history of teams winning their first ever
CL or EC1 in Munich as well.

Chelsea 2012
Dortmund 1997
Marseille 1993
Nottingham Forest 1979

PSG would be the first french team to win it since OM, so history is
definitely not on their side.

In any case, whoever wins, this will be an atypical year. First UCL
chamion that's not from England, Spain or Germany / Bayern since Inter
2010, that is 15 years. If PSG win, they will be the first french
european champion since OM 93 and only the second over-all.

French teams are 2-14 in European finals, quite the
awful record.

But, as Michael has justly remarked, Luis Enrique‘s
PSG is made of sterner stuff than previous iterations.

Now they hold the record for biggest win in a
single-legged European final regardless of
competition.

Ciao,
Werner

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 12:03:50 +0000, Real_Mardin wrote:

Furthermore, that a team can finish the "league" stage 15th and still go
on to win the competition has me questioning whether the new competition format is really fit for purpose.

That's the nature of cup competitions. I wonder, under the old format,
if you ranked the group stage qualifiers based on their record, what
would have been the average group stage finish of the eventual winner?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2025-06-01 07:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 12:03:50 +0000, Real_Mardin wrote:

Furthermore, that a team can finish the "league" stage 15th and still go
on to win the competition has me questioning whether the new competition
format is really fit for purpose.

That's the nature of cup competitions. I wonder, under the old format,
if you ranked the group stage qualifiers based on their record, what
would have been the average group stage finish of the eventual winner?

Certainly, teams that finished second in their group have won the
competition often enough. Presumably, depending on the ranking system
used, they would rank somewhere between 9-16 ?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Quite the uhmmm "celebrations" in Paris. I would hate to see what would
have happened had they lost.



On 2025-06-01 1:11 p.m., MH wrote:

On 2025-06-01 07:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 12:03:50 +0000, Real_Mardin wrote:

Furthermore, that a team can finish the "league" stage 15th and still go >>> on to win the competition has me questioning whether the new competition >>> format is really fit for purpose.

That's the nature of cup competitions. I wonder, under the old format,
if you ranked the group stage qualifiers based on their record, what
would have been the average group stage finish of the eventual winner?

Certainly, teams that finished second in their group have won the
competition often enough.  Presumably, depending on the ranking system
used, they would rank somewhere between 9-16 ?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 22:44:07 +0000, Futbolmetrix wrote:

I don't know, this may actually be an argument in favor of the new
format: with more matches between the top teams, is it more likely that
a potential big gun slips up?

If only someone had data on ex-ante probability of qualifying under the different formats, perhaps based on an average of statistical models and
expert opinions...
I don't know, maybe like a SophCon?

Hmmm...

Collective Consciousness probability of *not* advancing to the knockout
rounds:

2023-2024: 8 strongest teams in each group: 17.9%
2024-205: 8 strongest teams in the league phase: 4.2%

Shockingly, the new format substantially reduces the chances that the
top teams don't make it past the first round.

I guess that the new format did allow some of the big teams to coast in
the league phase, one or two slip-ups could easily be made up for.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 17:11:23 +0000, MH wrote:

On 2025-06-01 07:40, Futbolmetrix wrote:

On Sun, 1 Jun 2025 12:03:50 +0000, Real_Mardin wrote:

Furthermore, that a team can finish the "league" stage 15th and still go >>> on to win the competition has me questioning whether the new competition >>> format is really fit for purpose.

That's the nature of cup competitions. I wonder, under the old format,
if you ranked the group stage qualifiers based on their record, what
would have been the average group stage finish of the eventual winner?

Certainly, teams that finished second in their group have won the
competition often enough. Presumably, depending on the ranking system
used, they would rank somewhere between 9-16 ?

Just looking at rank within groups of the eventual winners)

2023-2024: Real Madrid: 1st (perfect 6-0-0 record)
2022-2023: Manchester City 1st
2021-2022: Real Madrid: 1st
2020-2021: Chelsea: 1st
2019-2020: Bayern: 1st (perfect 6-0-0 record)
2018-2019: Liverpool 2nd (tied on points with Napoli, which they beat
1-0 at Anfield in MD6. They qualified in virtue of more goals scored in
all group games)
2017-2018: Real Madrid 2nd (11 points above Dortmund in 3rd)
2016-2017: Real Madrid 2nd (8 points over Legia Warsaw in 3d)
2015-2016: Real Madrid 1st
2014-2015: Barcelona 1st
2013-2014: Real Madrid 1st
2012-2013: Bayern 1st
2011-2012: Chelsea 1st
2010-2011: Barcelona 1st
2009-2010: Inter(*) 2nd (3 points above Rubin Kazan, which they
beat in MD6; a draw would have been enough to see them through)
2008-2009: Barcelona 1st
2007-2008: Manchester United 1st
2006-2007: Milan(*) 1st
2005-2006: Barcelona 1st
2004-2005: Liverpool 2nd (tied on points with Olympiacos, they needed
an 86th minute Gerrard goal against the Greeks to advance in MD6)
2003-2004: Porto 2nd (finished 7 points ahead of Marseille in 3rd
place)

So, in 21 editions under the old format (2002-2003 and before had two
group stages), 15 times the eventual winner finished first in their
group, 6 times they finished 2nd. Only twice (Liverpool both times) were
they in real jeopardy of not qualifying to the knockout round.

I don't know, this may actually be an argument in favor of the new
format: with more matches between the top teams, is it more likely that
a potential big gun slips up?

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