These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
-hh
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts
when the facts are against him.
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP?
Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal postsFacts like low unemployment… /s
when the facts are against him.
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
-hh
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP?
Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts
when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't two consecutive GDP drops a recession
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive quarters of declines in real GDP."
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't two consecutive GDP drops a recessionWhich still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twiceAnd the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive quarters of declines in real GDP."
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter dropExcept that it is still not your call to make.
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
-hh
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
two consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared this to NOT be a recession,
primarily for political reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation rate is STILL substantially
below pre-pandemic levels (as I have pointed out several times).
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is the best
indicator of a recessions.
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
two consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared this to NOT be a recession,Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose LFP instead of actual employment,
primarily for political reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation rate is STILL substantially
below pre-pandemic levels (as I have pointed out several times).
because you know that the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as how
Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is the bestExcept as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole determinant.
indicator of a recessions.
-hh
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP?
Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts
when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
two consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared this to NOT be a recession,
primarily for political reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation rate is STILL substantially
below pre-pandemic levels (as I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose LFP instead of actual employment,
because you know that the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as how
Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is the best
indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a recession, which is what the upcoming
election will be based on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP?
Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts
when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
two consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared this to NOT be a recession,
primarily for political reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation rate is STILL substantially
below pre-pandemic levels (as I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose LFP instead of actual employment,
because you know that the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as how
Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is the best
indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.Until the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so, Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a recession, which is what the upcomingNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by partisan outlets. Specifically for
election will be based on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
the reason that you cite: its their desired talking point to win the next election cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to improve, you would know that the
hangup is women returning to the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would improve those systems for
families instead of being opposed to them.
-hh
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP?
Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts
when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
two consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared this to NOT be a recession,
primarily for political reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation rate is STILL substantially
below pre-pandemic levels (as I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose LFP instead of actual employment,
because you know that the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as how
Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is the best
indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.Until the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so, Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a recession, which is what the upcomingNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by partisan outlets. Specifically for
election will be based on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
the reason that you cite: its their desired talking point to win the next election cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to improve, you would know that the
hangup is women returning to the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would improve those systems for
families instead of being opposed to them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major signal of a recession, and
is the definition accepted by MOST people...
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was the -2% in the business goods
segment … that’s wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering of goods during
the supply chain glitches has come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own prior choice — excessive
inventories, so they cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions in
inventory purchases doesn’t mean that consumers have stopped buying.
Indeed, they haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are insignificant portion of GDP?
Care to explain just what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, moving the goal posts
when the facts are against him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
< https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
two consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a recession is more than merely GDP metrics
< https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the third quarter. And NBER
declared a recession occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than just GDP metrics, so that’s two
incidents of precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the current two quarter drop
is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared this to NOT be a recession,
primarily for political reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation rate is STILL substantially
below pre-pandemic levels (as I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose LFP instead of actual employment,
because you know that the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as how
Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is the best
indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.Until the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so, Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a recession, which is what the upcomingNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by partisan outlets. Specifically for
election will be based on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
the reason that you cite: its their desired talking point to win the next election cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to improve, you would know that the
hangup is women returning to the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would improve those systems for
families instead of being opposed to them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden is correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major signal of a recession, and
is the definition accepted by MOST people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll just get caught. Again.
-hh
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't >>>>>>>>> two consecutive GDP drops a recession
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7,Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
-hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't defineServices industries are having growth; it was
a woman or a man. So no surprise.
the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s
wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering
of goods during the supply chain glitches has
come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own
prior choice — excessive inventories, so they
cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions
in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that
consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they
haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by
another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just
what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again,
moving the goal posts when the facts are against
him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive
declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611> >>>>>>>>>>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice >>>>>>>>> in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than
just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the
current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in
1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared
this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political
reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation
rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as
I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that
the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers
are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP
contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the
Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political
planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the
definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the
ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after
paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't >>>>>>>>> two consecutive GDP drops a recession
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7,Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
-hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't defineServices industries are having growth; it was
a woman or a man. So no surprise.
the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s
wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering
of goods during the supply chain glitches has
come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own
prior choice — excessive inventories, so they
cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions
in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that
consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they
haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by
another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just
what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again,
moving the goal posts when the facts are against
him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive
declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611> >>>>>>>>>>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice >>>>>>>>> in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than
just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the
current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in
1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared
this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political
reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation
rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as
I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that
the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers
are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP
contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the
Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political
planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the
definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the
ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after
paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the
economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion
needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it
proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't >>>>>>>>> two consecutive GDP drops a recession
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7,Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
-hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't defineServices industries are having growth; it was
a woman or a man. So no surprise.
the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s >>>>>>>>>>>> wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering
of goods during the supply chain glitches has
come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own
prior choice — excessive inventories, so they
cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions
in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that
consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they
haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by
another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just
what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again,
moving the goal posts when the facts are against
him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive
declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611> >>>>>>>>>>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twice
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the
third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than
just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the
current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in
1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared
this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political
reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation
rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as
I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that
the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers
are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP
contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political
planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the
definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the
ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after
paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the
economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying business
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:35:58 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote: >>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, >>>>>>>>>>> -hh wrote:Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define >>>>>>>>>>>>> a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was >>>>>>>>>>>> the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s >>>>>>>>>>>> wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering >>>>>>>>>>>> of goods during the supply chain glitches has >>>>>>>>>>>> come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own >>>>>>>>>>>> prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions >>>>>>>>>>>> in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that
consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they
haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by >>>>>>>>>>>> another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just >>>>>>>>>> what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again,
moving the goal posts when the facts are against >>>>>>>>>>> him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive
declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the >>>>>>>>> third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive >>>>>>>>> quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than >>>>>>>> just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the
current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in >>>>>>>>> 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared
this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political
reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth, >>>>>>> which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation >>>>>>> rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as >>>>>>> I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that
the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers >>>>>> are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever >>>>>> employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP
contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by >>>> partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based >>>>> on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to >>>> the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to >>>> them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a year after the event, far too late for business and political planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this
definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so
great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
The fact remains is that the economy is experiencing a significant downturn as proven
by two consecutive quarters of a material drop in GDP. The rest is of academic interest in of:
1. When did it exactly start.
2. When did it exactly end.
3. What the depth and breadth are.
Denying the existence of a recession is a whole different kettle of fish, ....
... and is politically motivated.
This translates into pervasive discontent with Lyin' Biden's job performance...
You libtards can deny the existence of a recession, but the people know better.
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7,Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
-hh wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't defineServices industries are having growth; it was
a woman or a man. So no surprise.
the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s >>>>>>>>>>>> wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering >>>>>>>>>>>> of goods during the supply chain glitches has
come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own
prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions
in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that
consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they
haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by
another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just
what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again,
moving the goal posts when the facts are against
him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive
declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611> >>>>>>>>>>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the
third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive >>>>>>>>> quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than
just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the
current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in
1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared
this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political
reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth, >>>>>>> which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation
rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as >>>>>>> I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that
the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers
are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP
contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a year after the event, far too late for business and political planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 3:58:11 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:35:58 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote: >>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, >>>>>>>>>>> -hh wrote:Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define >>>>>>>>>>>>> a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was >>>>>>>>>>>> the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s >>>>>>>>>>>> wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering >>>>>>>>>>>> of goods during the supply chain glitches has >>>>>>>>>>>> come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own >>>>>>>>>>>> prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions >>>>>>>>>>>> in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that
consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they >>>>>>>>>>>> haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by >>>>>>>>>>>> another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just >>>>>>>>>> what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again,
moving the goal posts when the facts are against >>>>>>>>>>> him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive
declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession.
‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden is >> correct.Until the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the >>>>>>>>> third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive >>>>>>>>> quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than >>>>>>>> just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the >>>>>>>>> current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in >>>>>>>>> 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight
pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared
this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political
reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth, >>>>>>> which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation >>>>>>> rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as >>>>>>> I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose >>>>>> LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that >>>>>> the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as >>>>>> how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers >>>>>> are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever >>>>>> employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP >>>>>>> contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by >>>> partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite: >>>> its their desired talking point to win the next election
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based >>>>> on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to >>>> the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would >>>> improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to >>>> them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major >>> signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST >>> people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic >> because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this
definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion
needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so
great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
The fact remains is that the economy is experiencing a significant downturn as provenYou forgot:
by two consecutive quarters of a material drop in GDP. The rest is of academic interest in of:
1. When did it exactly start.
2. When did it exactly end.
3. What the depth and breadth are.
4. If NBER even declares it as a recession.
Denying the existence of a recession is a whole different kettle of fish, ....
You're trying to claim Balls & Strikes before the Umpire has made the call.
... and is politically motivated.
Which is politically motivated? To claim "STRIKE!" before the Ump? Because there is motivation for the Republicans to do just that, in an attempt to influence
consumer confidence that a recession is inevitable and thus foster a recession
in the US because they believe it benefits them politically.
This translates into pervasive discontent with Lyin' Biden's job performance...
Because of pervasive propaganda from seditionists.
You libtards can deny the existence of a recession, but the people know better.You're the boy who's crying "Wolf!" when that's the NBER's job.
-hh
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 1:04:08 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 3:58:11 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:35:58 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote: >>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, >>>>>>>>>>> -hh wrote:Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM
UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define >>>>>>>>>>>>> a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was >>>>>>>>>>>> the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s >>>>>>>>>>>> wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering >>>>>>>>>>>> of goods during the supply chain glitches has >>>>>>>>>>>> come home to roost, now that chains are
becoming unkinked. They have — by their own >>>>>>>>>>>> prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions >>>>>>>>>>>> in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that >>>>>>>>>>>> consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they >>>>>>>>>>>> haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by >>>>>>>>>>>> another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just >>>>>>>>>> what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, >>>>>>>>>>> moving the goal posts when the facts are against >>>>>>>>>>> him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive >>>>>>>>>>> declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession. >>>>>>>>>‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a
recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so, >>>> Biden is 100% correct.in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the >>>>>>>>> third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive >>>>>>>>> quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than >>>>>>>> just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the >>>>>>>>> current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in >>>>>>>>> 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight >>>>>>>>> pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared >>>>>>> this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political >>>>>>> reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth, >>>>>>> which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation >>>>>>> rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as >>>>>>> I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose >>>>>> LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that >>>>>> the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as >>>>>> how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped >>>>>> mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers >>>>>> are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever >>>>>> employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP >>>>>>> contraction is the best indicator of a recessions.
Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but >>>>> Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in aNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based >>>>> on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite: >>>> its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to >>>> improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to >>>> the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care >>>> system, and so you would be supporting policies which would >>>> improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major >>> signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST >>> people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll >> just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this
definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion
needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so
great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it
proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
The fact remains is that the economy is experiencing a significant downturn as provenYou forgot:
by two consecutive quarters of a material drop in GDP. The rest is of academic interest in of:
1. When did it exactly start.
2. When did it exactly end.
3. What the depth and breadth are.
4. If NBER even declares it as a recession.
Denying the existence of a recession is a whole different kettle of fish, ....
You're trying to claim Balls & Strikes before the Umpire has made the call.
... and is politically motivated.
Which is politically motivated? To claim "STRIKE!" before the Ump? Because there is motivation for the Republicans to do just that, in an attempt to influence
consumer confidence that a recession is inevitable and thus foster a recession
in the US because they believe it benefits them politically.
This translates into pervasive discontent with Lyin' Biden's job performance...
Because of pervasive propaganda from seditionists.
You libtards can deny the existence of a recession, but the people know better.You're the boy who's crying "Wolf!" when that's the NBER's job.
-hhI thought this was an economic issue, not a baseball game.
Pointing out that the nation is in a recession IS NOT propaganda, it is presenting the facts in a simple form that even Lyin' Biden's own
economic advisor AND Crazy Nancy agree with.
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 8:00:48 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 1:04:08 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 3:58:11 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:35:58 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote: >>> On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, >>>>>>>>>>> -hh wrote:Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM >>>>>>>>>>>> UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define >>>>>>>>>>>>> a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was >>>>>>>>>>>> the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s >>>>>>>>>>>> wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering >>>>>>>>>>>> of goods during the supply chain glitches has >>>>>>>>>>>> come home to roost, now that chains are >>>>>>>>>>>> becoming unkinked. They have — by their own >>>>>>>>>>>> prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions >>>>>>>>>>>> in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that >>>>>>>>>>>> consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they >>>>>>>>>>>> haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by >>>>>>>>>>>> another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just >>>>>>>>>> what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, >>>>>>>>>>> moving the goal posts when the facts are against >>>>>>>>>>> him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive >>>>>>>>>>> declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession. >>>>>>>>>‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a >>>>>>>> recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, byin a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the >>>>>>>>> third quarter. And NBER declared a recession
occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive >>>>>>>>> quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than >>>>>>>> just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of
precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the >>>>>>>>> current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in >>>>>>>>> 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight >>>>>>>>> pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make.
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared >>>>>>> this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political >>>>>>> reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation >>>>>>> rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as
I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose >>>>>> LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that >>>>>> the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as >>>>>> how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped >>>>>> mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers >>>>>> are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP >>>>>>> contraction is the best indicator of a recessions. >>>>>>Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole
determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but >>>>> Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is. >>>> Until the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so, >>>> Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a
recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
its their desired talking point to win the next election >>>> cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to >>>> improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care >>>> system, and so you would be supporting policies which would >>>> improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the
Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after
paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this
definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion
needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so
great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it
proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
The fact remains is that the economy is experiencing a significant downturn as provenYou forgot:
by two consecutive quarters of a material drop in GDP. The rest is of academic interest in of:
1. When did it exactly start.
2. When did it exactly end.
3. What the depth and breadth are.
4. If NBER even declares it as a recession.
Denying the existence of a recession is a whole different kettle of fish, ....
You're trying to claim Balls & Strikes before the Umpire has made the call.
... and is politically motivated.
Which is politically motivated? To claim "STRIKE!" before the Ump? Because
there is motivation for the Republicans to do just that, in an attempt to influence
consumer confidence that a recession is inevitable and thus foster a recession
in the US because they believe it benefits them politically.
This translates into pervasive discontent with Lyin' Biden's job performance...
Because of pervasive propaganda from seditionists.
You libtards can deny the existence of a recession, but the people know better.You're the boy who's crying "Wolf!" when that's the NBER's job.
If true, then why were you trying to call the game for the Ump?-hhI thought this was an economic issue, not a baseball game.
Pointing out that the nation is in a recession IS NOT propaganda, it is presenting the facts in a simple form that even Lyin' Biden's ownWell, if it is a fact, then you can cite the press release from the NBER stating that they had made a formal determination. Cite please!
economic advisor AND Crazy Nancy agree with.
-hh
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:30:28 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 8:00:48 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 1:04:08 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 3:58:11 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:35:58 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote: >>> On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, >>>>>>>>>>> -hh wrote:Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM >>>>>>>>>>>> UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define >>>>>>>>>>>>> a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was >>>>>>>>>>>> the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s
wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering >>>>>>>>>>>> of goods during the supply chain glitches has >>>>>>>>>>>> come home to roost, now that chains are >>>>>>>>>>>> becoming unkinked. They have — by their own >>>>>>>>>>>> prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions >>>>>>>>>>>> in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that >>>>>>>>>>>> consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they >>>>>>>>>>>> haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by >>>>>>>>>>>> another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just >>>>>>>>>> what % of GDP just those two add up to?
The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, >>>>>>>>>>> moving the goal posts when the facts are against >>>>>>>>>>> him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive >>>>>>>>>>> declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession. >>>>>>>>>‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a >>>>>>>> recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isNo, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, byin a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the >>>>>>>>> third quarter. And NBER declared a recession >>>>>>>>> occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than >>>>>>>> just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of >>>>>>>> precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the >>>>>>>>> current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in >>>>>>>>> 1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight >>>>>>>>> pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make. >>>>>>>>
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared >>>>>>> this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political >>>>>>> reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation
rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as
I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that >>>>>> the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped >>>>>> mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers
are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDP >>>>>>> contraction is the best indicator of a recessions. >>>>>>Except as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole >>>>>> determinant.
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but >>>>> Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is. >>>> Until the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so, >>>> Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a >>>>> recession, which is what the upcoming election will be based
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth.
partisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
its their desired talking point to win the next election >>>> cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to >>>> improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care >>>> system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the
Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political
planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after
paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this
definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and
duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion
needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so
great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it
proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
The fact remains is that the economy is experiencing a significant downturn as provenYou forgot:
by two consecutive quarters of a material drop in GDP. The rest is of academic interest in of:
1. When did it exactly start.
2. When did it exactly end.
3. What the depth and breadth are.
4. If NBER even declares it as a recession.
Denying the existence of a recession is a whole different kettle of fish, ....
You're trying to claim Balls & Strikes before the Umpire has made the call.
... and is politically motivated.
Which is politically motivated? To claim "STRIKE!" before the Ump? Because
there is motivation for the Republicans to do just that, in an attempt to influence
consumer confidence that a recession is inevitable and thus foster a recession
in the US because they believe it benefits them politically.
This translates into pervasive discontent with Lyin' Biden's job performance...
Because of pervasive propaganda from seditionists.
You libtards can deny the existence of a recession, but the people know better.You're the boy who's crying "Wolf!" when that's the NBER's job.
If true, then why were you trying to call the game for the Ump?-hhI thought this was an economic issue, not a baseball game.
Pointing out that the nation is in a recession IS NOT propaganda, it is presenting the facts in a simple form that even Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor AND Crazy Nancy agree with.Well, if it is a fact, then you can cite the press release from the NBER stating that they had made a formal determination. Cite please!
-hhSorry, Lyin' Asshole, the NBER IS NOT the only entity that calls economic recessions
(https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/34-recession.htm):
"There is no official definition of recession, but there is general recognition that the term
refers to a period of decline in economic activity. Very short periods of decline are not
considered recessions. Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of
recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation-adjusted)
gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces."
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 10:04:10 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 6:30:28 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 8:00:48 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 1:04:08 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 3:58:11 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:35:58 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:12:26 PM UTC-4, thomas...@gmail.com wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 2:48:33 PM UTC-4, Alan wrote:
On 2022-08-01 11:08, TomS wrote:
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:46:40 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote:Thanks for pointing that out - that was the ONLY time that the NBER didn't
On Monday, August 1, 2022 at 12:45:58 AM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Sunday, July 31, 2022 at 3:46:28 AM UTC-7, -hh wrote: >>>> On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:51:50 PM UTC-4, TomS wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:04:37 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 3:59:31 PM UTC-4, TomS >>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 10:40:53 AM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>> wrote:
On Saturday, July 30, 2022 at 11:23:03 AM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 6:25:07 PM UTC-7, -hh >>>>>>>>> wrote:
On Friday, July 29, 2022 at 7:48:45 PM UTC-4, TomS
wrote:
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 4:06:22 PM UTC-7, >>>>>>>>>>> -hh wrote:Oh, you mean that Services + Goods are
On Thursday, July 28, 2022 at 3:48:00 PM >>>>>>>>>>>> UTC-4, Irving S wrote:
These are the same clowns that can't define >>>>>>>>>>>>> a woman or a man. So no surprise.Services industries are having growth; it was >>>>>>>>>>>> the -2% in the business goods segment … that’s
wholesale, not retail … as their over-ordering
of goods during the supply chain glitches has >>>>>>>>>>>> come home to roost, now that chains are >>>>>>>>>>>> becoming unkinked. They have — by their own >>>>>>>>>>>> prior choice — excessive inventories, so they >>>>>>>>>>>> cut future orders at wholesale. But reductions >>>>>>>>>>>> in inventory purchases doesn’t mean that >>>>>>>>>>>> consumers have stopped buying. Indeed, they >>>>>>>>>>>> haven’t: consumer spending was up again, by >>>>>>>>>>>> another +.7%.
That is but a SMALL SEGMENT of GDP.
insignificant portion of GDP? Care to explain just
what % of GDP just those two add up to? >>>>>>>>>>> The fact is that Lyin' Biden is, once again, >>>>>>>>>>> moving the goal posts when the facts are against >>>>>>>>>>> him.
Facts like low unemployment… /s
Show me ONE occasion when a two consecutive >>>>>>>>>>> declines in GDP DIDN'T result in a recession. >>>>>>>>>‘Twas in 1947; look it up.
<
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411821683908611>
Only once, in 1947, was a recession not declared when real GDP dipped twicetwo consecutive GDP drops a recession
Which still clearly establishes precedent that a >>>>>>>> recession is more than merely GDP metrics
<
https://www.cutimes.com/2022/07/28/economists-closely-watching-signs-of-a-possible-recession/>
Has the NBER made a ruling? No, they have not. As such, Biden isUntil the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee says so,in a row: 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.2% in the
third quarter. And NBER declared a recession >>>>>>>>> occurred in 1960-1961, when there were no consecutive
quarters of declines in real GDP."
And the latter also illustrates that it’s more than
just GDP metrics, so that’s two incidents of >>>>>>>> precedence.
Note that the combined GDP drop was just 0.5%; the >>>>>>>>> current two quarter drop is 2.5%, FIVE TIMES that in
1947. So, the 1947 contraction was a very slight >>>>>>>>> pull back - this drop is not.
Except that it is still not your call to make. >>>>>>>>
-hh
Nor yours or Lyin' Biden's, who has already declared >>>>>>> this to NOT be a recession, primarily for political >>>>>>> reasons. The ONLY positive he can point to is job growth,
which is NOT new job creation as the labor participation
rate is STILL substantially below pre-pandemic levels (as
I have pointed out several times).
Yet it is primarily for political reasons that you chose
LFP instead of actual employment, because you know that
the Boomer demographics bubble is biasing LFP as well as
how Republicans blocking aid for childcare has crimped
mothers from returning to work.
For the traditional metric of total employed, the numbers
are at ~99.7% of pre-CoVid:
< https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS>
At current trends, probably will cross over into most ever
employed in ~2 months.
The fact remains that two consecutive quarters of GDPExcept as you’ve found, it just isn’t the sole >>>>>> determinant.
contraction is the best indicator of a recessions. >>>>>>
Hardly, labor force participation is NOT political, but
Lyin' Biden claiming that we are not in a recession is.
Biden is 100% correct.
The bottom line is most of us feel that we ARE in a >>>>> recession, which is what the upcoming election will be basedpartisan outlets. Specifically for the reason that you cite:
on, not the lies coming out of Lyin' Biden's mouth. >>>> No, you're just parroting what you've been told to believe, by
its their desired talking point to win the next election
cycle.
The bottom line is that if you really wanted LFP rates to
improve, you would know that the hangup is women returning to
the workforce because of how CoVid trashed the child care
system, and so you would be supporting policies which would
improve those systems for families instead of being opposed to
them.
No, Lyin' Biden is 100% WRONG.
correct.
A two consecutive material drop in GDP IS a preliminary, major
signal of a recession, and is the definition accepted by MOST
people...
As a *preliminary indicator*.
That is not definitive as you have already conceded.
Plus this has been further illustrated as not 100% deterministic
because of prior precedent.
But do feel free to try to move the goalposts again ... you'll
just get caught. Again.
-hh
The NBER determines the DATES of the recession, not whether or not
it occurred (we already know that). That is why it is called the
Business Cycle Dating Committee. This does not happen until up to a
year after the event, far too late for business and political
planning. Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor has changed the
definition: https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/white-house-takes-heat-after-biden-adviser-accused-of-redefining-recession/
It is obvious that the economy is slowing, mainly due to the
ultra-high inflation. People just have less money to spend after
paying for skyrocketing rents, food and gas. Walmart's earnings
report backs this up. It is only a matter of time before employers
begin cutting staff to offset lower sales volume.
The bottom line is this is just ANOTHER lie by Lyin' Biden that'The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a
won't stand up to even cursory scrutiny.
significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the
economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this
definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and
duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion
needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed
by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity,
the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so
great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it
proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.'
<https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating>
That sounds a lot like they decide if a recession occurs.
Yes they do, ...
Agreed: the NBER is the entity that makes the official call; everyone else is
merely kibitzing on the sidelines.
... but the 2020 episode was highly unusual and not a result of underlying businessSimilarly, GDP is not the sole determinant. There's also real spending, employment, etc:
conditions but exogenous forces - the pandemic lockdown. In the 2022 H1 the
numbers are still very preliminary. Advance GDP numbers are subject to fairly large
revisions as more data comes in. Small opposite-direction changes in the GDP
Deflator and nominal GDP could erase the negative YoY real GDP declines.
"These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment,
real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes,
employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no
fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are
weighted in our decisions."
<https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions>
There's no doubt that 2020 was highly unusual, just as how there's also been historical
precedent where there's been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1947,
yet the NBER didn't conclude 'recession'.
Plus there's also a factor of the risk of awareness becomes self-fulfilling, as if consumers
believe that they're in a recession, their confidence can slide and push us into a recession
which would not have otherwise occurred if not for that self-awareness affect on behavior.
-hh
The fact remains is that the economy is experiencing a significant downturn as provenYou forgot:
by two consecutive quarters of a material drop in GDP. The rest is of academic interest in of:
1. When did it exactly start.
2. When did it exactly end.
3. What the depth and breadth are.
4. If NBER even declares it as a recession.
Denying the existence of a recession is a whole different kettle of fish, ....
You're trying to claim Balls & Strikes before the Umpire has made the call.
... and is politically motivated.
Which is politically motivated? To claim "STRIKE!" before the Ump? Because
there is motivation for the Republicans to do just that, in an attempt to influence
consumer confidence that a recession is inevitable and thus foster a recession
in the US because they believe it benefits them politically.
This translates into pervasive discontent with Lyin' Biden's job performance...
Because of pervasive propaganda from seditionists.
You libtards can deny the existence of a recession, but the people know better.You're the boy who's crying "Wolf!" when that's the NBER's job.
If true, then why were you trying to call the game for the Ump?-hhI thought this was an economic issue, not a baseball game.
Pointing out that the nation is in a recession IS NOT propaganda, it is
presenting the facts in a simple form that even Lyin' Biden's own economic advisor AND Crazy Nancy agree with.
Well, if it is a fact, then you can cite the press release from the NBER stating that they had made a formal determination. Cite please!
Sorry, Lyin' Asshole, the NBER IS NOT the only entity that calls economic recessions
(https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/34-recession.htm):
"There is no official definition of recession, but there is general recognition that the term
refers to a period of decline in economic activity. Very short periods of decline are not
considered recessions. Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of
recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation-adjusted)
gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces."
Since when is the US forced to comply to the IMF for domestic policy?
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