• Risk of a Solar Storm Disaster

    From Quadibloc@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 8 08:25:49 2022
    We've all heard of the Carrington Event in 1859.
    I recently saw an article about how in the years 774-775, there had been a
    much larger solar storm; the article stated that this showed the risk of
    solar storms was higher than we realized.
    That may be, but there was something in that article which, I thought, made that same point much more strongly.
    I learned that in 1921, from May 13 to 15, there was a solar storm, weaker
    than the Carrington Event, but strong enough to cause telegraph equipment
    to start fires. This was called the "New York Railroad Storm" at the time.
    I found this alarming, because here was a weaker, and hence more common,
    event which also was clearly quite strong enough to fry an awful lot of the microcomputers out there!

    John Savard

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  • From StarDust@21:1/5 to Quadibloc on Sat Jul 9 01:49:55 2022
    On Friday, July 8, 2022 at 8:25:50 AM UTC-7, Quadibloc wrote:
    We've all heard of the Carrington Event in 1859.
    I recently saw an article about how in the years 774-775, there had been a much larger solar storm; the article stated that this showed the risk of solar storms was higher than we realized.
    That may be, but there was something in that article which, I thought, made that same point much more strongly.
    I learned that in 1921, from May 13 to 15, there was a solar storm, weaker than the Carrington Event, but strong enough to cause telegraph equipment
    to start fires. This was called the "New York Railroad Storm" at the time.
    I found this alarming, because here was a weaker, and hence more common, event which also was clearly quite strong enough to fry an awful lot of the microcomputers out there!

    John Savard

    Can't be worst than the war kUkrainia?

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  • From W@21:1/5 to Quadibloc on Sat Jul 9 04:16:12 2022
    On Friday, July 8, 2022 at 11:25:50 AM UTC-4, Quadibloc wrote:
    We've all heard of the Carrington Event in 1859.
    I recently saw an article about how in the years 774-775, there had been a much larger solar storm; the article stated that this showed the risk of solar storms was higher than we realized.
    That may be, but there was something in that article which, I thought, made that same point much more strongly.
    I learned that in 1921, from May 13 to 15, there was a solar storm, weaker than the Carrington Event, but strong enough to cause telegraph equipment
    to start fires. This was called the "New York Railroad Storm" at the time.
    I found this alarming, because here was a weaker, and hence more common, event which also was clearly quite strong enough to fry an awful lot of the microcomputers out there!


    It seems that we are about 40 years overdue for such an event.

    And it's not just PCs. Vehicles and even refrigerators use more electronics than is prudent.

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  • From Chris L Peterson@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 9 06:49:37 2022
    On Fri, 8 Jul 2022 08:25:49 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca>
    wrote:

    We've all heard of the Carrington Event in 1859.
    I recently saw an article about how in the years 774-775, there had been a >much larger solar storm; the article stated that this showed the risk of >solar storms was higher than we realized.
    That may be, but there was something in that article which, I thought, made >that same point much more strongly.
    I learned that in 1921, from May 13 to 15, there was a solar storm, weaker >than the Carrington Event, but strong enough to cause telegraph equipment
    to start fires. This was called the "New York Railroad Storm" at the time.
    I found this alarming, because here was a weaker, and hence more common, >event which also was clearly quite strong enough to fry an awful lot of the >microcomputers out there!

    These events pose little direct risk to electronics. The high voltages
    they induce are in long conductors. So things connected to the power
    grid that aren't surge protected are problematic. Long communication
    wires are problematic. Space-based assets are problematic.

    Your PC, your mobile phone, your television... all will be fine. Of
    course, much of their support infrastructure may not be.

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  • From RichA@21:1/5 to Chris L Peterson on Sat Jul 9 23:51:10 2022
    On Saturday, 9 July 2022 at 08:49:42 UTC-4, Chris L Peterson wrote:
    On Fri, 8 Jul 2022 08:25:49 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc <jsa...@ecn.ab.ca>
    wrote:
    We've all heard of the Carrington Event in 1859.
    I recently saw an article about how in the years 774-775, there had been a >much larger solar storm; the article stated that this showed the risk of >solar storms was higher than we realized.
    That may be, but there was something in that article which, I thought, made >that same point much more strongly.
    I learned that in 1921, from May 13 to 15, there was a solar storm, weaker >than the Carrington Event, but strong enough to cause telegraph equipment >to start fires. This was called the "New York Railroad Storm" at the time. >I found this alarming, because here was a weaker, and hence more common, >event which also was clearly quite strong enough to fry an awful lot of the >microcomputers out there!
    These events pose little direct risk to electronics. The high voltages
    they induce are in long conductors. So things connected to the power
    grid that aren't surge protected are problematic. Long communication
    wires are problematic. Space-based assets are problematic.

    Your PC, your mobile phone, your television... all will be fine. Of
    course, much of their support infrastructure may not be.

    Is that what happened to the idiot criminals who run Rogers Communications in Canada?

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  • From Quadibloc@21:1/5 to Chris L Peterson on Sun Jul 10 10:01:47 2022
    On Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 6:49:42 AM UTC-6, Chris L Peterson wrote:

    These events pose little direct risk to electronics. The high voltages
    they induce are in long conductors. So things connected to the power
    grid that aren't surge protected are problematic. Long communication
    wires are problematic. Space-based assets are problematic.

    Your PC, your mobile phone, your television... all will be fine. Of
    course, much of their support infrastructure may not be.

    This assumes I have enough warning that my PC *isn't plugged in* when
    it happens.

    Also, while this may be true of small events, like those which caused
    power outages in recent decades, the Carrington Event _and_ the one
    in 1921 caused problems even with telegraph equipment that wasn't
    connected to long telegraph wires - so the traces on the motherboard
    may be enough to fry microscopic transistors in a _major_ event.

    John Savard

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  • From Chris L Peterson@21:1/5 to jsavard@ecn.ab.ca on Sun Jul 10 17:24:54 2022
    On Sun, 10 Jul 2022 10:01:47 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc
    <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:

    On Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 6:49:42 AM UTC-6, Chris L Peterson wrote:

    These events pose little direct risk to electronics. The high voltages
    they induce are in long conductors. So things connected to the power
    grid that aren't surge protected are problematic. Long communication
    wires are problematic. Space-based assets are problematic.

    Your PC, your mobile phone, your television... all will be fine. Of
    course, much of their support infrastructure may not be.

    This assumes I have enough warning that my PC *isn't plugged in* when
    it happens.

    If you're using a quality surge suppressor, no solar flare is going to
    induce a high enough voltage on your mains to damage a computer.


    Also, while this may be true of small events, like those which caused
    power outages in recent decades, the Carrington Event _and_ the one
    in 1921 caused problems even with telegraph equipment that wasn't
    connected to long telegraph wires - so the traces on the motherboard
    may be enough to fry microscopic transistors in a _major_ event.

    They are not. By several orders of magnitude. Nothing was damaged that
    wasn't connected to long wires. Claims to the contrary are
    unsupportable (and unsupported).

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  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to Quadibloc on Mon Jul 11 12:02:13 2022
    On 10/07/2022 18:01, Quadibloc wrote:
    On Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 6:49:42 AM UTC-6, Chris L Peterson wrote:

    These events pose little direct risk to electronics. The high voltages
    they induce are in long conductors. So things connected to the power
    grid that aren't surge protected are problematic. Long communication
    wires are problematic. Space-based assets are problematic.

    Your PC, your mobile phone, your television... all will be fine. Of
    course, much of their support infrastructure may not be.

    This assumes I have enough warning that my PC *isn't plugged in* when
    it happens.

    Any basic surge suppression will cope with it.

    Worst case the mains will arc at the surge arresters which provide a
    ground path for lightning strikes to mains cables.

    Also, while this may be true of small events, like those which caused
    power outages in recent decades, the Carrington Event _and_ the one
    in 1921 caused problems even with telegraph equipment that wasn't
    connected to long telegraph wires - so the traces on the motherboard
    may be enough to fry microscopic transistors in a _major_ event.

    It is long wire at high latitudes that will suffer. The big snag is that capacity to rebuild big mains distribution transformers is rather
    limited so places could be without power for long periods of time.

    UK institute of Electronic Engineers did a good risk assessment on it a
    few years back summery version and more detailed engineers copy:

    https://raeng.org.uk/media/2iclimo5/space_weather_summary_report.pdf

    https://raeng.org.uk/media/lz2fs5ql/space_weather_full_report_final.pdf

    --
    Regards,
    Martin Brown

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