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Politics This Morning: Polls put Liberals, Conservatives neck and neck as campaign wanes; O’Toole in two Atlantic provinces

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Politics This Morning
Thursday, September 16, 2021
Politics This Morning
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Leader Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives appear to be in a dead heat just a few days out from the final voting day.The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade, Sam Garcia


** Politics This Morning: Polls put Liberals, Conservatives neck and neck as campaign wanes; O’Toole in two Atlantic provinces (https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/09/16/politics-this-morning-polls-put-liberals-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-campaign-wanes-
otoole-in-two-atlantic-provinces/317309?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID)
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By Samantha Wright Allen (https://www.hilltimes.com/author/samantha-wright-allen?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_
eid=UNIQID)

Good Thursday morning. Welcome to day 33 of the campaign,

A pair of polls out yesterday put the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck with just a few days to go. An Ipsos poll for Global News (https://globalnews.ca/news/8191108/canada-election-ipsos-poll-dead-heat/?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+
Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID) has the two tied at 32 per cent of the vote, pulling from a survey of 2,001 Canadians between Sept. 10
and 13. That marks a slight dip in favour for the Tories, according to Ipsos’ tracking.

Abacus Data’s daily tracking, meanwhile, has Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals ahead with 33 per cent, while Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives have secured 31 per cent. Both pollsters findings are well within the margin of error for the results
to slightly narrow, or widen.

The NDP garnered 21 per cent support in the Ipsos poll, and 22 per cent via the Abacus survey, which tracked feedback from about 1,500 eligible voter between Sept. 13 to 15.

“The Liberals and Conservatives remain in a statistical tie nationally. The Conservatives have clear leads in the Prairies whereas the Liberals have leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. BC is a close race overall,” according to the Abacus
summary. (https://abacusdata.ca/daily-tracking-poll-election-44-sept-15/?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=
UNIQID)

https://www.hilltimes.com/election-2021?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID

The P.E.I. Greens’ rise to become the official opposition in 2019 signals that the province’s voters are tired of “politics as usual,” which could translate into increased support for the Greens at the federal level, politicos told The Hill Times
(https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/09/15/green-party-targets-p-e-i-seats-in-rare-campaign-trip-by-annamie-paul/316762?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-
cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID) . Green Party Leader Annamie Paul signalled the same outlook this week in a rare visit outside her Toronto Centre riding to campaign with local candidates. Of the four Liberal-held ridings, Malpeque
may be in reach of the Greens after longtime Liberal Wayne Easter has stepped away from politics, and 2019’s second-place finisher, Anna Keenan, is up again for the Greens.

And, just five days out from election day, two New Democrat candidates have resigned from running based on social media on Israel and Auschwitz, prompting NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to address and condemn a “scary rise in anti-Semitism.”

The party said it supported the choice of Sidney Coles and Dan Osborne, who questioned whether the concentration camp was real. Both have promised to learn more about anti-Semitism in the wake of their past public comments, according to The Canadian
Press. (https://globalnews.ca/news/8191827/ndp-candidates-resign-social-media-comments/?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=
cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID)

Ms. Coles has since apologized for her comments, per The Toronto Star, (https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-election/2021/09/13/toronto-ndp-candidate-apologizes-for-tweets-that-baselessly-linked-israel-to-missing-covid-19-vaccines.html?utm_source=
Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID) which first reported on Ms. Coles’ past Twitter posts that baselessly claimed
Israel was somehow responsible for missing doses of COVID-19 vaccine in the United States.

Ms. Coles was running in Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., where the party secured third place in 2019 with 15.8 per cent of the vote, and Mr. Osborne was running in the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester, N.S., where the party was fourth with 12 per
cent).

https://www.lapaigallery.com/pages/lisa-creskey-sunset-cruise?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID

“Antisemitism is real. We’re seeing a scary rise in antisemitism, and we are unequivocally opposed, and we’ll confront it,” said Mr. Singh said during a campaign stop in Essex, Ont., which he’s visited several times this campaign and where
former NDP MP Tracey Ramsey is running again.

In other examples of public contrition, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has apologized for his government’s handling of the pandemic in the province, which has declared a state of public health emergency and introduced new measures to stem the spread of
COVID-19. This just months after a decision in the spring to shift the province’s approach, and in July lifted almost all (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/jason-kenney-deena-hinshaw-covid-reopening-update-1.6070925?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+
Times+Publishing&utm_campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID) COVID-19 health restrictions.

“It is now clear that we were wrong, and for that I apologize,” said Mr. Kenney on Wednesday, per CBC News. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/kenney-shandro-hinshaw-update-covid-19-1.6177210?utm_source=Subscriber+-++Hill+Times+Publishing&utm_
campaign=cbcced01b2-Politics-This-Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8edecd9364-cbcced01b2-92461148&mc_cid=cbcced01b2&mc_eid=UNIQID)

In campaign events, Mr. Trudeau is starting off in Montreal with a 9:15 a.m. announcement, while Mr. O’Toole is doubling up on Atlantic provinces today. He’s in Saint John, N.B., for an 11 a.m. announcement and in Truro, N.S., for a 7 p.m. event with
supporters.

The riding of Saint John-Rothesay was held by Liberal incumbent Wayne Long, just barely, with only 3.5 percentage points separating him from the second-place Conservative candidate. Truro is in Cumberland–Colchester, which faced an even tough fight
between red and blue last election. Liberal Lenore Zann won her first seat in Parliament with a 453 vote lead and is up for re-election.

Mr. Singh is staying in Ontario, starting off his day with a housing announcement in Toronto at 9 a.m., followed by a 1:15 p.m. meeting with supporters in Oshawa, before ending his day with a 4:15 p.m. event with supporters in Kingston.

In Oshawa, the New Democrats came in second to the Conservatives in 2019, 10 points behind incumbent Colin Carrie. Kingston’s two ridings may be a little further off, with the NDP candidate coming in second, and 23 points behind, Liberal incumbent Mark
Gerretsen, with an event wider gap and third-place, finish behind Conservative incumbent Scott Reid.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul is observing Yom Kippur and has no media events listed in her itinerary.

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has his usual busy schedule, complete with media interviews lined up, including on a podcast, a Facebook event, and with Radio-Canada. He’ll be in several communities today including Mont-Saint-Hilaire,
Saint-Jérôme, Montréal, and Shawinigan.

People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier is still in Ontario , where he’ll be attending public rallies and meet and greets throughout the day, in Hamilton, Oakville, and Toronto, where he’ll also take part in a protest at the CBC Broadcast
Centre. He’ll also video in for an 11:30 a.m. Zoom candidates debate in Beauce, Que., which he’s aiming to retake from the Conservatives.

In other scheduled events today, Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux is taking part on a webinar titled Evaluation of Federal Election Party Platforms, where he explains how his mandate differs during an election when parties can ask him to
determine the cost of electoral proposals.

For a “Senators and Youth Engagement” event, Conservative Senator Salma Ataullahjan, and ISG Senators Ratna Omidvar and Marilou McPhedran will share their stories, experiences at the Senate, and their role in connecting with youth and supporting
underrepresented communities.

ISG Senator Peter Boehm is also featured on a panel today, looking at the declassification of government documents in Canada. That’s hosted by the Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary International History. Sen. Boehm, who was appointed to the Red
Chamber in 2018, has served as the deputy minister for the G7 Summit and personal representative of the prime minister (Sherpa) from July 2017 and as deputy minister of International Development, among other roles.

Several Ottawa- and Gatineau-area Liberals vying for re-election are taking part in a French-language roundtable discussion with the Black community, hosted by the Franklin community group. They are: Associate Minister of Finance Mona Fortier, Greg
Fergus, Marie-France Lalonde, and Chandra Arya.

The Hill Times

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