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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Mon, 4 Apr 2022 19:05:19 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

По класацията на Economist, точно както бях пресказал, България стана
първата страна _В СВЕТА_ преминала бариерата от 1% от общото население
починало от ковид*.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-

tracker

Дори Сърбия и Русия, други две страни с голям процент Мангър- Радостини,
са на светлинни години от България. Гърция - 0.25%. Орбанова Унгария -
0.45%. Ирландия - 0.08. Тръпанарските американски щати са едва 0.34%.

*Според статията пусната от Ведрин по-рано тази година това се е случило
още миналата година, но аз предпочитам методологията на Economist.

да беше ни спестил тази проста пращулка?

или и твоята циганка умря скоропостижно?

--
«地 球 誕 生 在 牛 市 的 小 時 — Earth is born in the Bull's hour»

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tue, 5 Apr 2022 06:32:25 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

Данните за "excess deaths" почти със сигурност подценяват
общия брой починали от ковид. Т.е. починалите от ковид в
България са поне 10% повече от "excess deaths".

Кои данни?
Умрели от китайски грип: 36240
Умрели в повече: 70090

Как ти дойде на ум че умрелите от китайски грип са над 70090?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tue, 5 Apr 2022 09:55:14 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

On Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:40:16 AM UTC-7, chorbalan wrote:

On Tue, 5 Apr 2022 06:32:25 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

Данните за "excess deaths" почти със сигурност подценяват
общия брой починали от ковид. Т.е. починалите от ковид в
България са поне 10% повече от "excess deaths".

Кои данни?
Умрели от китайски грип: 36240
Умрели в повече: 70090

Как ти дойде на ум че умрелите от китайски грип са над 70090?

Това го обсъждахме преди година и нещо. Ако починалите от ковид принадлежат към
популацията, която и без друго е близо до смъртта (какъвто е случая) умирането им
от ковид автоматично ги изважда от "нормалните" умирания за същата година. С
други думи "очакваните" нековид смъртни случаи са по-малко от статитсически
средното за предходните 5 години (от където извличат данни за "excess deaths").
С математическо моделиране можа да предположи с голяма сигурност каква е
нужната корекция. 10% за България е консервативна моя преценка. За Economist
съм почти 100% че не правят тази корекция.

Това ще направи бройкапа по-голяма от 36000, не от 70000.
Както и да е, България почти винаги е на челно място в ЕС когато
става дума за негативни събития..

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tue, 5 Apr 2022 15:31:24 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

On Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 3:55:49 PM UTC-4, chorbalan wrote:

On Tue, 5 Apr 2022 09:55:14 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

On Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:40:16 AM UTC-7, chorbalan wrote:

On Tue, 5 Apr 2022 06:32:25 -0700 (PDT), Ivaylo Ivanov wrote:

Данните за "excess deaths" почти със сигурност подценяват
общия брой починали от ковид. Т.е. починалите от ковид в
България са поне 10% повече от "excess deaths". >> >> Кои данни?

Умрели от китайски грип: 36240
Умрели в повече: 70090

Как ти дойде на ум че умрелите от китайски грип са над 70090?

Това го обсъждахме преди година и нещо. Ако починалите от ковид принадлежат към
популацията, която и без друго е близо до смъртта (какъвто е случая) умирането им
от ковид автоматично ги изважда от "нормалните" умирания за същата година. С
други думи "очакваните" нековид смъртни случаи са по-малко от статитсически
средното за предходните 5 години (от където извличат данни за "excess deaths").
С математическо моделиране можа да предположи с голяма сигурност каква е
нужната корекция. 10% за България е консервативна моя преценка. За Economist
съм почти 100% че не правят тази корекция. >> Това ще направи бройкапа по-голяма от 36000, не от 70000.

Както и да е, България почти винаги е на челно място в ЕС когато
става дума за негативни събития..

Бройката 36000 няма как да стане по-голяма (освен с времето). Това са официално
отчетените починали от ковид. Техния брой е колкото казва правителството. Говорим
за другите, реално починалите, които навярно са 80,000, но поне 70,000.

А, с неотчетените сигурно. Мнозина от умрелите със симптоми не са тествани.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

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--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)