Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
From
Nick@21:1/5 to
All on Sun May 29 17:14:36 2022
Do We Really Know Who Is Winning in Ukraine?
We underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated the Russians, but now
we seem to be doing the reverse.
May 26, 2022 | 12:01 am
Doug Bandow
Russia’s attack was unjustified and criminal, causing needless death and destruction in Ukraine, and sacrificing Russian lives for no good reason.
The U.S. and Europeans share the blame, having spent decades ignoring and dismissing security complaints from Moscow, a decision that turned out to
be foolish, even reckless. However, that does not excuse Putin’s murderous aggression. Nor are Ukrainians his only victims; Vladimir Putin’s decision has sent shockwaves across nations and continents.
…
For instance, German Brigadier General Erich Vad recently offered a far
more pessimistic assessment than that which dominates Western airwaves:
[T]he Russians predominantly decide when, where, and with what forces,
they strike. The Russians proceed slowly in Donbass in steps over a
several kilometers broad front, and they also achieve gains in territory.
It does not happen so fast here as during the initial operations in Kyiv, because they position themselves broader. And besides Mariupol, they
control here also the other urban centers on the Sea of Azov, and the
coast of the Black Sea. When one considers, it exists this option, which President Zelensky talks about, of a counterstrike for the reconquest of
areas. But militarily-operationally this is far away from reality. The
Russians are simply too strong in east Ukraine. They have on the ground
and also in the air supremacy—that should not be misjudged. For counteroffensives, the Ukrainians do not have the materiel, and they would
not succeed, if they had the materiel.
Vad dismissed claims that Western arms guarantee a Ukrainian breakthrough:
Ukraine’s logistical base is a thousand kilometers away, in Poland and Slovakia. That these weapons have to be relocated over thousands of
kilometers through Ukraine to east Ukraine. And these supply lines are of course under fire from the Russians. By their cruise missiles, short range missiles, air force, by special forces, and reconnaissance. This way, a
large part of these supplies is annihilated or captured on its way to east Ukraine. From a military-operational viewpoint, Ukraine only has a chance
to win at the end of a long-lasting conflict if the costs for Russia are
too high. That is, similar to Afghanistan for the West. Or Iraq for the
USA. But the price would be enormously high [for Ukraine]. It would in the
end be devastation of the country. That can, in my view, somehow never be
the objective.
…
However, a Ukrainian victory is not certain. It probably isn’t likely. It might not even be possible. Given the uncertainty, the U.S. should push
for negotiations, offering support to Kiev to make peace, and providing sanctions relief to Moscow if it does the same.
…
останалото обсебеният може да прочете сам.
надявам се, че този път няма да се хлъзне да търси статии за автора или за
организацията, създала сайта, а ще наблегне на осмислянето на текста.
в него има и други интересни неща, като това кой кого бил биел в този
конфликт. споменава се и нещо за жертви, ама ще оставя това обсебения да
го оповести, ако се осмели 8-).
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