• How was this written with a straight face?

    From Spike@21:1/5 to All on Fri May 30 15:29:03 2025
    Quote: The satellite records used to show much smaller warming trends for
    the troposphere which were considered to disagree with model prediction; however, following revisions to the satellite records, the trends are now similar. Unquote

    <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature>

    --
    Spike

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  • From brian@21:1/5 to aero.spike@mail.com on Fri May 30 18:55:22 2025
    In message <m9u15vFk7jcU1@mid.individual.net>, Spike
    <aero.spike@mail.com> writes

    Quote: The satellite records used to show much smaller warming trends for
    the troposphere which were considered to disagree with model prediction; >however, following revisions to the satellite records, the trends are now >similar. Unquote

    <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature>


    It's explained here :-

    <https://www.carbonbrief.org/study-why-troposphere-warming-differs-betwee n-models-and-satellite-data/>

    "Because the tropospheric temperature estimates from satellites overlap
    with part of the stratosphere, they end up combining a bit of
    stratospheric cooling with tropospheric warming and can underestimate
    the true rate of warming. To avoid this issue, the new study applies a correction to remove some of the stratospheric cooling from the TMT
    series. The approach they use for this is described in a previous paper published in the Journal of Climate."

    B
    --
    Brian Howie

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  • From Spike@21:1/5 to brian on Sat May 31 10:16:39 2025
    brian <nospam@b-howie.co.uk> wrote:
    In message <m9u15vFk7jcU1@mid.individual.net>, Spike
    <aero.spike@mail.com> writes

    Quote: The satellite records used to show much smaller warming trends for
    the troposphere which were considered to disagree with model prediction;
    however, following revisions to the satellite records, the trends are now
    similar. Unquote

    <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature>


    It's explained here :-

    <https://www.carbonbrief.org/study-why-troposphere-warming-differs-betwee n-models-and-satellite-data/>

    "Because the tropospheric temperature estimates from satellites overlap
    with part of the stratosphere, they end up combining a bit of
    stratospheric cooling with tropospheric warming and can underestimate
    the true rate of warming. To avoid this issue, the new study applies a correction to remove some of the stratospheric cooling from the TMT
    series. The approach they use for this is described in a previous paper published in the Journal of Climate."

    B

    It’s astonishing that so much correction has been applied to data, quite a lot of it to fit the results from modelling. Scientifically, the models
    should be adjusted to fit the data, but science was ushered out of the
    debate a long time ago.

    Didn’t the chap who put together the data from the Central England Temperature Record resign due to the way his data was being ‘adjusted’?

    Anyway, the article says (quote) “Overall, the study suggests that while tropospheric warming has not accelerated to the extent that models have predicted in recent years, there’s little evidence that it has slowed down.”(unquote)

    Again, we see temperature differences, in this case it’s troposphere temperatures, being put down to other factors than inadequate modelling.
    What would happen, apart from the gravy-train crash, if models were
    adjusted to fit the data, like good science would demand?

    --
    Spike

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  • From Joe@21:1/5 to Spike on Sat May 31 13:12:37 2025
    On 31 May 2025 10:16:39 GMT
    Spike <aero.spike@mail.com> wrote:

    brian <nospam@b-howie.co.uk> wrote:
    In message <m9u15vFk7jcU1@mid.individual.net>, Spike
    <aero.spike@mail.com> writes

    Quote: The satellite records used to show much smaller warming
    trends for the troposphere which were considered to disagree with
    model prediction; however, following revisions to the satellite
    records, the trends are now similar. Unquote

    <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature>


    It's explained here :-

    <https://www.carbonbrief.org/study-why-troposphere-warming-differs-betwee n-models-and-satellite-data/>

    "Because the tropospheric temperature estimates from satellites
    overlap with part of the stratosphere, they end up combining a bit
    of stratospheric cooling with tropospheric warming and can
    underestimate the true rate of warming. To avoid this issue, the
    new study applies a correction to remove some of the stratospheric
    cooling from the TMT series. The approach they use for this is
    described in a previous paper published in the Journal of Climate."

    B

    It’s astonishing that so much correction has been applied to data,
    quite a lot of it to fit the results from modelling. Scientifically,
    the models should be adjusted to fit the data, but science was
    ushered out of the debate a long time ago.

    Didn’t the chap who put together the data from the Central England Temperature Record resign due to the way his data was being
    ‘adjusted’?

    Anyway, the article says (quote) “Overall, the study suggests that
    while tropospheric warming has not accelerated to the extent that
    models have predicted in recent years, there’s little evidence that
    it has slowed down.”(unquote)

    Again, we see temperature differences, in this case it’s troposphere temperatures, being put down to other factors than inadequate
    modelling. What would happen, apart from the gravy-train crash, if
    models were adjusted to fit the data, like good science would demand?


    Here's an early paper showing the kinds of adjustment that have been
    made to raw data:

    https://www.giss.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/1999/1999_Hansen_ha03200f.pdf

    --
    Joe

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